Zelaya Receives Communion, Michelleti Agrees to Arias Mediation Visit, Battles Among Media

Regarding Honduras, is Obama (via Hillary) a flip-flopper, indifferent, deliberately ambiguous, or genuinely trying to steer a conciliatory, middle course?

Some readers have faulted me for not making daily posts. Dear friends, I do have a job and many other responsibilities, so please be patient. I’m doing my best.

El Tiempo Latino, a local Spanish-language newspaper dated today, September 25, reports on the curfew that was ignored by Zelaya supporters, resulting in 113 arrests and one death, vandalism against fast food outlets, and the looting of businesses. Washington Hispanic adds that Zelaya accuses the interim government of pressuring him to commit suicide, something he has no intention of doing.

This just in from a Honduran friend inside the country: This is just a conflict between politicians in their struggle for power. T

his next from an observer based in the US: Barbara, I read the blog and it is very interesting. However, I think Micheletti likes his current status too much to care for his country. Zelaya is no saint, but if Uribe could change the law in Colombia to run again with no problems, why cannot the Hondurans do the same? I tell you why, double standards. Uribe is a US friend, so there was not much opposition there. Zelaya was stupid, or smart enough, whatever way you see it, to get close to Chavez. After all, oil prices were killing us, and are killing us in the US, Chavez is offering Honduras cheap oil. Empty bellies are a very persuasive reason in this case. The elites in Honduras, including the army, live in a different world. That is why they are so stubborn, geopolitics is a very foreign concept to them, unless is affects them directly. Micheletti likes the "status" of being President, event if that position is a curse in itself. I wish Obama had been more direct about this. He is a lawyer, not a historian. Sadly.

I agree that empty bellies and the need for oil are very persuasive. While the US has apparently taken no official stand against Uribe’s third term in Colombia, many US observers have strongly protested. However, Uribe does seem to be genuinely popular in Colombia, unlike Chavez these days—according to reports I get from inside sources in both countries, not any polls. I disagree that the Honduran military rank-and-file are an elite. They are mostly from the very poorest segment, though army service does offer them an avenue of upward mobility. My book and blog give the example of the army sons of Blanca, one of my rural village health volunteers, one of whom became an officer leading troops in Iraq. As to whether Micheletti enjoys the status of being president, it’s entirely possible. By taking the stand he has, he may have convinced himself that it’s the morally right and politically correct course.

Another correspondent asks whether Micheletti is so dead set against letting Zelaya resume office even for a little while because he fears a spectacular populist initiative that could sway the vote? Again, I have no insight into Micheletti’s state of mind.

Someone else comments: The riots that were expected by Zelaya's presence have started with sacking of stores. The de facto authorities responded with repression and curfews but the situation could become critical if public protests continue. Business interests will demand order and will ask the government for more repression. But the international community will interpret renewed repression as violations of human rights. Meanwhile, there will be a sizeable portion of the military that does not favor repression and is discontent and another portion that sympathizes with Zelaya and is trying to channel military discontent into a populist coup d' etat. An explosive mix to say the least and one that could break either way or erupt into a civil war. Where would you like to be in the present situation inside the frying pan, inside the fire or outside of the kitchen watching someone else doing the cooking?

Lots of comments coming in right now, including some predicting that military elements will turn against Micheletti in a counter-coup. Here is one of the more colorful comments: This whole mess has the feeling of a self-fulfilling prophecy, a Greek tragedy with Micheletti in the role of Oedipus. Moreover, like in a Greek tragedy, Micheletti is full of hubris and is unaware of the fact that he is but a tool in the hands of the Gods, or to describe it in modern terms, he is under the influence of historical forces over which he has no control. Finally, to complete the metaphor, instead of murdering his father and marrying his mother, Micheletti, while seeking to preserve them, will eventually manage not only to wipe out the Honduran Congress and Supreme Court but also to screw his own oligarchy in the process!

The Wall St. Journal, in an editorial published September 23, 2009, faults Zelaya for the current bloodshed, since he urged his supporters to converge on the capital, shouting “Fatherland, restitution or death” (an eerie echo of Fidel Castro’s exhortation “Fatherland or death”). The editorial exhorts the US to urge Zelaya “to turn himself over to Honduran authorities for arrest and trial.” Of course, that’s not going to happen.

Honduras articles collected by the Washington Post website today are too numerous to reproduce here. They report that both Zelaya and Micheletti say they are open to talks, that the UN Security Council was to take up the Honduras matter today, that Brazil wants to talk directly with Obama, and that the interim government believes that the upcoming elections will provide a solution, even though the ability to have fair elections is being disputed. The Carter Center has indicated that it will monitor the November elections.

An article in today’s Wall St. Journal (no e-mail version available) shows a photo of Zelaya receiving communion at a Mass being held inside the Brazilian Embassy. An emissary of Cardinal Rodriguez reportedly met with him, while protests and counter-protests continued outside the embassy. Zelaya reportedly accused Israeli mercenaries of blasting the embassy with high-frequency radiation, which Micheletti denied. After receiving an appeal from for US President Jimmy Carter, Micheletti agreed to allow a mediation visit by Costa Rican president Oscar Arias. Meanwhile, media reports accused Zelaya of misusing government funds for caring for his horses and his ranch. At least if the battle takes place in the media, it’s better than out in the street where people can get hurt. (See article below next paragraph.)

On a completely different topic, I was invited recently to a forum at the Hudson Institute, a right-leaning think tank located in Washington, DC. The main speaker was Dr. Jyttee Klausen, Danish author of a book published by Yale U. Press entitled The Cartoons that Shook the World. Klausen is a professor at Brandeis and Harvard. She appeared on a panel with a Muslim woman who appeared unveiled and whose name I don’t recall. Dr. Klausen said that Yale published her book, but without the page that showed the actual cartoons as they had initially appeared, although that page had been cleared beforehand. She showed us the removed page, as it had appeared originally in an obscure Danish publication, looking fairly innocuous to Western eyes. Six months after the cartoons had first been published, a worldwide movement against them was initiated by radical Muslims, who added some more flamboyant images to the originals and sent them all around the world via the Internet, resulting in a trade boycott of Danish goods by Muslim countries and the deaths of over 200 people. The voices of moderate Muslims, Klausen and her fellow panelist argued, are drowned out because of fear. Fear of reprisals may also have motivated Yale Press to remove the page depicting the cartoons, although the justification offered was along the lines of wanting to avoid offending Muslim religious sensibilities. Klausen showed examples of early Muslim art representing Mohammed in face and body, then later, with a veil over his face. Much of the Koran exhorts followers to be peaceful and conciliatory, and satire and disagreements appear in historical Muslim texts. However, now, only the most radical interpretations hold sway, violence is emphasized, and any pictorial depiction of Mohammed is strictly forbidden as blasphemous. So was the original publication of the cartoons in Denmark a matter of freedom of expression, or was it a hate crime, discriminatory and racially motivated, like swastikas and nooses? That’s the crucial question. Klausen argued that Muslim extremists are imposing their views through death threats not only on the majority of Muslim who actually are moderate, but also on non-Muslims, and are extending their censorship to the West and threatening traditional Western freedoms.

September 25, 2009
Battle for Honduras Echoes Loudly in Media
By ELISABETH MALKIN and MARC LACEY, New York Times

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras — “The lies of Manuel Zelaya” intones a stern voice as a picture of Mr. Zelaya, the deposed president of Honduras, flashes on the screen. Then to the ring of a cash register, images flash by of Mr. Zelaya’s cowboy hat, horses, a private plane, Times Square. While he was president, Mr. Zelaya bought jewels, paid for trips and maintained his horses with money he stole from the Central Bank and the Treasury, according to the television advertisement produced by the de facto government. Headlines from Honduran newspapers pop up onscreen as if to demonstrate the truth of the accusations. The spot, and others like it, are regular fare on Honduran television and radio, where the fierce political battle dividing Honduras plays out amid assertions of all kinds, no matter whether they are rooted in fact. Mr. Zelaya’s return to the country on Monday has turned up the volume on the media war — one in which the government’s voice is the loudest, but in which Mr. Zelaya is a skilled and equally slippery combatant.

“Mr. Zelaya has a terrorist plan,” another government ad asserts, accusing the deposed president of using the Brazilian Embassy, where he has taken refuge, as his general command. That followed an ominous warning that “foreign groups and military planes” had managed to enter Honduran territory. The government spots are the most extreme example of the allegations that have become the diet of the Honduran airwaves.

Even before Mr. Zelaya was ousted in a coup on June 28, television and newspapers, controlled by a handful of wealthy businessmen, were opposed to him. Along with a state television station, the government of Roberto Micheletti, the de facto president, has many vehicles with which to discredit, if not smear, Mr. Zelaya. On Wednesday night, for example, government television reported, without attribution, that Brazil had promised to reinstate Mr. Zelaya in return for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council.

But Mr. Zelaya has his own media allies, notably the Radio Globo radio station, which broadcasts around the clock, opening its microphones to callers and repeating its own set of rumors and misrepresentations. Mr. Zelaya is a frequent caller to the station and to others around the world, where he makes his own outrageous claims: Israeli commandos have been hired to kill him; he is being secretly poisoned by gas and radiation; Mr. Micheletti is preparing to storm the Brazilian Embassy.

“Nobody in Honduras gives the truth 100 percent,” said Alejandro Villatoro, the owner of Radio Globo and a legislator allied with Mr. Zelaya. He said that the reports of repression by the police and soldiers that had become a staple of his station were not broadcast on government-allied media. The government clearly has the advantage, he said, noting that he and his reporters were briefly arrested the day of the coup. That experience has made him determined to keep the station on the air, even though the government frequently blocks his programming (most recently with children’s bedtime stories). Advertisers have pulled their spots since the coup, and so he is financing the station’s $15,000 to $20,000 monthly budget.

Each side argues that it is countering the other side’s lies. “Our goal is to tell people the truth,” said a government media adviser who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak for the government. “They are running a disinformation campaign.” The competing accusations continue when the two sides discuss what led to the crisis. According to a recent analysis of the legal issues of the case prepared by the Law Library of Congress in Washington, both Mr. Zelaya and those who ousted him appear to have broken the law.

In Mr. Zelaya’s case, he flouted court rulings ordering him not to conduct a survey on whether to convene a citizens’ assembly to change the Constitution. Eventually, the chief prosecutor filed a complaint with the Supreme Court accusing Mr. Zelaya of treason and abuse of authority, among other charges. That led to an arrest warrant that was carried out on June 28.

But Mr. Zelaya was not formally arrested when soldiers raided his home. Instead, the army detained him, took him to the airport and put him on a plane to Costa Rica, even though the Honduran Constitution says no citizen may be handed over to foreign authorities.The military has said it decided to remove Mr. Zelaya from the country to reduce the likelihood that his detention would cause unrest. After initially defending the decision, members of the de facto government have come to see it as a mistake.

Norma C. Gutierrez, an international law specialist who prepared a legal analysis for American lawmakers last month, criticized both sides. Her bottom line: the case against Mr. Zelaya was rooted in constitutional and statutory law. His removal from the country was not.

Afrer Zelaya’s Return, Increased Turmoil, Violence

Since Zelaya is reportedly still inside the Brazilian Embassy accompanied by 70 family members and supporters, the situation could soon become uncomfortable now with utilities cut off. There are probably no woodstoves, wells, or latrines inside the embassy compound, facilities that allow many rural Hondurans to live without utilities (and to make a negligible carbon footprint). With Honduran airports now closed, my friends in the IHS brigade slated to go the Mosquitia in October must be biting their nails. Other medical brigades must be shut out of Honduras.

Furthermore, clashes have between security forces and Zelaya supporters have increased, creating an emergency situation in the country, something US official had feared if Zelaya returned without an agreement already in place. My prior observation that the security forces, all things considered, have been somewhat restrained, seems to be giving way to more violent repression. I can identify with the demonstrators, remembering having been caught up with Chilean crowds back in 1988 when we were being dispersed with tear gas and water cannons. That was when I was in Chile as an election observer for the referendum that gave Pinochet a resounding “No” vote. After Micheletti’s statesmanlike declaration a few days ago in the Washington Post, he seems to be silent now. He explained his position to the international community in the US press, but is not explaining anything, as far as I know, to his own people.

Perhaps the interim government is trying to hold out until the magic date of September 29, two months before scheduled elections, mentioned as key by one of my frequent commentators on this blog. He seems to think that after that, Zelaya cannot constitutionally change the top military commanders, but perhaps Zelaya doesn’t care all that much anyway about the constitution as it’s currently written. He previously backed a constitutional assembly to change it and may be building up support for that again. With all that has happened since Zelaya’s expulsion in late June, popular support may well be growing for the type of constitutional changes that Zelaya supports. Furthermore, September 29 is almost a week away and a lot can happen before then.

Obama wants the parties and regional actors, especially Arias, to try to work things out and not have Washington be seen as Big Brother intervening with a heavy hand. His whole approach to foreign affairs is multilateralism. As he told the UN General Assembly, “Don’t expect America to fix everything.” The US military base located not far from Teguc has remained conspicuously quiet during these last 3 months. Brazil has asked the UN Security Council, at its meetings in New York City, to take up the Honduras matter. Can the blue hats be far behind?

A blog reader has this to say about Micheletti: If he were to share what he thinks Zelaya would do to remain in power if allowed to resume office next week, there'd be more sympathy for his hardnosed position…I suppose the Red Cross is on the way to the Brazilian embassy with food and water and non-battery-operated cell phone chargers. It seems unlikely that Zelaya's appearance at the embassy surprised everyone there…I'm not impressed with the 15-hour trip. Zelaya is relatively young and presents himself as vigorous. If he had to ride kidney-punishing vehicles for miles over barely drivable terrain before being passed off to the next car or bus, at least no one was looking to steal his earrings, pick his pocket, and he didn't have kids peeing on him. I'm sure you've put up with worse.


This just in today from a website called Democracia Participativa:

Tegucigalpa, Sept.22.─ Honduran soldiers on Tuesday surrounded the Brazilian embassy where deposed president Manuel Zelaya is holed up seeking reinstatement, using tear gas to drive off thousands of his supporters.

The dramatic scenes in Tegucigalpa came hours after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had appealed for calm as the crisis was raised on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

Soldiers in face-masks used truncheons and tear gas to break up a demonstration by about 4,000 pro-Zelaya demonstrators, before encircling the embassy compound.
The de facto government had extended a curfew and closed the Central American country's airports after Zelaya made a surprise return and took refuge in the embassy on Monday.

Setting the stage for a confrontation, Zelaya called on supporters to converge on the capital as the government extended what had been a night time curfew until 6:00 pm Tuesday to try to head off protests.

Demonstrators Are Dispersed from Brazilian Embassy, Utilities Cut off

Obama’s modus operandi is to seek compromise and consensus, but in the Honduran case, as in others, that has proven rather difficult. I suspect that, with everything else on his plate, he wishes the annoying Honduran crisis would simply go away. However, now with Zelaya’s return, that cannot happen. Unless Zelaya and his family are going to take up permanent residence in the Brazilian Embassy, something has to give. By Latin American standards, although demonstrators have been abused and two even killed, given that this clash has been going on for 3 whole months, I think the authorities there have shown some restraint. Let's see if that continues now that Zelaya is back in the country.

Zelaya’s associates must have known about his overland trek to return to Tegucigalpa, as they’d predicted a change before the end of September, but they certainly kept the secret well. Was Zelaya assisted by some members of the armed forces? That possibility must be worrisome to Micheletti. Certainly Micheletti must feel under seige, not only with the whole world tunred against him, but surrounded by countries whose left-leaning governments are sympatheic not only to Zelaya, but also to Chavez, considered the mastermind behind Zelaya.

The Brazilian Embassy has warned the de facto government not to storm the embassy. However, demonstrators were dispersed with teargas, and water and electricity were cut off to the embassy. (See articles below about Zelaya’s return.)

One commentator remarks: An original way to continue to keep public pressure on the de facto government. But there is a potential price to pay. If Zelaya does not get back into power by September 29 and the Micheletti administration holds elections and turns over power to the elected administration, it is possible that the future Honduran government will not drop charges against him and, if so, he is liable to be holed up in the Brazilian embassy for a heck of a long time. Not too long, I would say, if the utilities are cut off. And the violence seems to be ratcheting up.

Referring to quite another part of the world, a long-term Burmese political prisoner, whose case was assigned to my local Amnesty International group, was reported released with a group of several other prisoners. We were thrilled. Alas, U Win Htein is still behind bars, contrary to what was initially reported, a huge disappointment. An associate of Aung San Su Kyi, he has been behind bars for at least a decade. We must now redouble our efforts.

This comment from an American living in Honduras came in on last Thursday’s blog, referring to a WW4 statement regarding Ramon Custodio:

La Gringa said...
Ramón Custodio has had his visa revoked therefore it would be impossible for him to visit the US.
That WW4 report must have info from another country! There is ONE vice-president in Honduras. There are 128 diputados. There are 6 candidates for president.September 18, 2009 4:40 PM


September 23, 2009
Mystery in Honduran Leader’s Return
By MARC LACEY and GINGER THOMPSON, New York Times

MEXICO CITY — He is the most wanted man in Honduras, with a face and black bushy mustache known to every soldier, police officer and border guard in the land. So as the political standoff in Honduras entered a surprising new chapter, the big question Tuesday was how in the world Manuel Zelaya, the deposed and exiled president, managed to sneak back into his country undetected. In a car trunk? With the help of loyal soldiers? In a disguise? Under the protection of other countries? Every option was being considered and debated in Tegucigalpa, where the population is very much divided on Mr. Zelaya.

His unexpected appearance at the Brazilian Embassy on Monday certainly surprised the government that ousted him nearly three months ago and had vowed to arrest him on 18 charges if he dared return. After initially denying that Mr. Zelaya had come back, the government was forced to send soldiers and police officers on Tuesday to disperse thousands of Zelaya backers who defied a curfew and massed outside the embassy for a glimpse of their erstwhile leader.

That Mr. Zelaya wanted to return was no secret. He buzzed the capital in a small plane on July 4 and stepped several feet across the border later that month from Nicaragua, to the delight of his supporters. In both instances the Honduran military stopped him. How he did so this time and, even more important, whether his presence will help resolve the standoff in his country, are the subject of fierce debate.

“Everyone has been working hard to reach a peaceful resolution to this crisis,” said a senior State Department official, when asked about Mr. Zelaya’s reappearance. “Zelaya’s return was unexpected, and for him to do this without consulting those parties certainly was not helpful. That said, it’s a reality and it could have the effect of forcing people to make decisions they have avoided making — or it could cause the situation to destabilize.”

Roberto Micheletti, the de facto president, promised not to storm the Brazilian Embassy, where Mr. Zelaya, in his trademark white cowboy hat, and dozens of friends and family members are now trapped. However, the government did cut off water, electricity and telephone service to the building. But he appealed Tuesday to the international community for dialogue to resolve the crisis, which began June 28 when the military, the courts and the legislature decided that Mr. Zelaya had violated the law by scheming to extend his term beyond that allowed in the Constitution, and therefore had to go. But despite worldwide condemnation of Mr. Zelaya’s removal, Mr. Micheletti has refused to cede power. Elections are to be held Nov. 28 to choose a new president, but many countries have said they will not recognize the results and that Mr. Zelaya must be allowed to serve out his term.

From inside the Brazilian Embassy, Mr. Zelaya described his return to reporters as an arduous 15-hour slog that required trekking through the mountains and navigating back roads in buses, cars and trucks to get around military checkpoints. He said he was helped by a Honduran citizen, whom he refused to name. “They didn’t realize when I entered,” Mr. Zelaya said on Honduran radio. “I mocked them.”

Various reports have emerged of Mr. Zelaya’s convoluted journey, which may have involved the help of other countries. After initially insisting that Mr. Zelaya was not in Honduras at all but was in a luxury hotel in Nicaragua, Mr. Micheletti said he had learned that the ousted leader had gone through various Central American countries, apparently in an effort to disguise his movements, before entering Honduras.

At the border town of El Amatillo, just across from El Salvador, a Honduran immigration agent working the evening that Mr. Zelaya entered the country said she did not see him. “But there are a lot of mountain passes where he could have crossed,” she said.

The Spanish newspaper El País, citing an unnamed Salvadoran official, reported that Mr. Zelaya was a passenger on a Venezuelan plane that landed without authorization on Sunday night in El Salvador. He was met, it said, by a car belonging to the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front, the Salvadoran governing party. Both Venezuela and El Salvador have leftist governments sympathetic to Mr. Zelaya. Where Mr. Zelaya went next, though, no one seemed to know.

The Honduran military denied that his return was a major security breach. “Military intelligence did not fail,” Adolfo Lionel Sevilla, the de facto defense minister, told El Heraldo, a Honduran daily newspaper. He added cryptically, “Everything can’t be publicized because it would create anxiety.”

One worry is that some members of the Honduran military loyal to Mr. Zelaya may have aided in his return. “There is a certain amount of concern among Hondurans about how Zelaya got into the country,” said Christopher Sabatini, editor of Americas Quarterly, a New York academic journal. “It’s hard to imagine that he could get in without some cooperation from the military. And Micheletti, in particular, has to be worried about whether he really has control over all his forces.”

One Venezuelan newspaper said Mr. Zelaya hid part of the time in a car trunk. Other accounts had him pulling up at the Brazilian Embassy in a vehicle with diplomatic plates that belonged to the Central American Parliament. Whether the Brazilians knew he was coming was a matter of debate.

The State Department official said the United States had been aware that Mr. Zelaya wanted to return to Honduras, because he had vowed to do exactly that during his last visit to Washington. But the official said the United States was caught unawares by Mr. Zelaya’s appearance at the Brazilian Embassy, since he was expected in New York this week to address the United Nations.

After tear gas was fired to disperse protesters and scores of curfew arrests were made Tuesday, the State Department official said the United States was deeply concerned about the de facto government’s actions. He said he had heard reports that the security forces had taken control of houses surrounding the embassy, prompting the United States to send “strong signals” to Mr. Micheletti that they expected the government “to respect the inviolability of diplomatic territory and personnel.”

Tensions Rise In Honduras Over Coup
Violence Feared as Exiled President And De Facto Leader Refuse to BuckleBy Mary Beth Sheridan
Washington Post Staff Writer

Wednesday, September 23, 2009
In a battle of wills that threatened to explode in bloodshed, the two men who claim to be leader of Honduras both insisted Tuesday that they would not back down, as soldiers in the country's capital fired tear gas to disperse supporters of the leftist president who made a dramatic return three months after being flown into exile by the military.

De facto president Roberto Micheletti said in an interview that he would not cede his office to President Manuel Zelaya, who was ousted because of what the country's Supreme Court viewed as his efforts to stay in power beyond the one-term limit. Zelaya is now holed up in the Brazilian Embassy.

Still, as U.S. and Latin American diplomats worked feverishly to defuse the crisis,
the de facto president acknowledged that unofficial contacts had been established between his side and the Zelaya camp. "We are content this is going on," Micheletti said from the Honduran capital, Tegucigalpa. He said, however, that he would not accept "impositions" from those close to Zelaya.

The coup in small, impoverished Honduras has brought unified condemnation from a hemisphere determined to prevent a return to the military takeovers of the past. But Honduras's neighbors -- and its most important trading partner, the United States -- have appeared impotent in the face of the crisis.

On Tuesday, Honduran soldiers used truncheons, water cannons and tear gas to disperse thousands of Zelaya supporters outside the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa, according to news reports from the country. Zelaya, who was inside with about 70 friends and relatives, told reporters, "We are ready to risk everything, to sacrifice."

He had suddenly appeared in the capital a day earlier, after a secret 15-hour trip through the country. Police and soldiers quickly swarmed the area around the embassy, raising fears of violence.

"Given the reports we have received, and the poor track record of the security forces since the coup, we fear that conditions could deteriorate drastically in the coming days," Jose Miguel Vivanco, the Americas director at Human Rights Watch, said in a statement.

The U.S. government appealed to both sides to remain calm and urged Micheletti's government to respect the Brazilian diplomatic premises, which it agreed to do. U.S. diplomats in Washington and at the United Nations -- including Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton -- met with Latin American diplomats to try to resolve the crisis. "The fact is, Zelaya is there. . . . We have to now try to take advantage of the facts as we find them," said one U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity. He said the United States and other governments were urging talks between Zelaya and Micheletti and that there were "initial feelers" between the two sides.
Asked if he was willing to negotiate with Zelaya, Micheletti said in the interview that he would impose conditions: "We want to hear from Mr. Zelaya first, before negotiations, that he's ready to accept the elections on the 29th of November, that he's ready to support the next government."

Zelaya has said he will not recognize the presidential elections unless he is allowed to return to power, as envisioned under the "San Jose accord," which was brokered in U.S.-backed negotiations this summer. Under the pact, Zelaya would be allowed to conclude his term as scheduled in January 2010, but his powers would be reduced and elections would be moved up by a month. Zelaya has said he is willing to sign the accord, but Micheletti has refrained.

The de facto leader said he did not trust that Zelaya would leave office as scheduled. He also said officials had discovered numerous cases of corruption linked with Zelaya. Under the San Jose accord, amnesty would be granted to people on both sides for political crimes.

But Micheletti made clear he did not envision amnesty for Zelaya. "We have laws in the country. If he presents himself to the authorities, the courts, I think he's going to have a fair trial," Micheletti said.

Surprise! Zelaya, Back in Honduras, Takes Refuge in Brazilian Embassy

Before getting into the story of the day, I recently joined Facebook and mentioned this blog there. I not only got “thumbs up” signals from Facebook friends, but one said, “Thanks, Barbara, you make the situation more understandable to me.” The situation is complicated and multi-faceted, with so many players with different objectives, from Barak and Hillary to Chavez and Fidel, not to mention deposed president Zelaya, the OAS, the internal players, and the current Honduran presidential candidates. I just hope that those thinking it may be resolved by the end of September are proven right. Something definitely has happened before the end of September, but it is not yet a resolution of the crisis. If Zelaya remains holed up in the Brazilian Embassy, his supporters' exuberance may prove premature.

A new wrinkle just came to my attention, namely that the Congressional Research Service, after making a close review of Honduran law, has determined that no actual “coup” took place. Of course, both Obama and Hillary have avoided the use of the word “coup,” while also calling for Zelaya’s reinstatement, probably more from a desire to be in sync with Latin America and the Arias plan than any legal judgment. But here is what the CRS reports says: “The Supreme Court of Honduras has constitutional and statutory authority to hear cases against the President of the Republic and many other high officers of the State, to adjudicate and enforce judgments, and to request the assistance of the public forces to enforce its rulings.”

That opinion may be mute now as far as the international community is concerned. Zelaya, traveling overland (from where?) has taken up residence in the Brazilian Embassy, much to the delight of his supporters. At least he had the foresight not choose the Venezuelan Embassy. Now what? The drama continues.


September 22, 2009
Ousted President Says He Is Now in Honduras
By ELISABETH MALKIN, New York Times

MEXICO CITY — The deposed president of Honduras, Manuel Zelaya, returned to his country on Monday, declaring that he had come to negotiate an end to the political crisis there. But the de facto government that ousted him denied he was in the country.

In an interview with CNN’s Spanish-language service, Mr. Zelaya said he was in the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa, and that he hoped to meet with members of the de facto government and “prominent Hondurans” soon to negotiate a way out of the political stalemate that has gripped the country since he was ejected from office and from the country in a June 28 coup. He made similar remarks in an interview with Telesur, a Venezuelan television network. The Brazilian government confirmed that Mr. Zelaya was at its embassy, and a United States State Department spokesman said it had confirmed that he was in Honduras.

But Roberto Micheletti, the de facto president, told reporters that Mr. Zelaya was not in the country at all. Reports of his presence were intended to bring people out into the streets to demonstrate in support of Mr. Zelaya, Mr. Micheletti said, a tactic he called “mediatic terrorism.”

The morning was full of confusion. Several thousand supporters of Mr. Zelaya, who has been threatened with arrest if he is found in Honduras, gathered outside the United Nations building in Tegucigalpa under the midday sun as rumors flew through the capital that he was inside. But Hector Espinal, a U.N. spokesman, said that Mr. Zelaya was not in the building and that U.N. officials had told his supporters to go home. By the early afternoon, Mr. Zelaya’s wife, Xiomara Castro, was saying that he was in the Brazilian Embassy.

Since the coup, when Mr. Zelaya was summarily bundled onto a plane and flown out of Honduras, his rambling press conferences have turned on his plans to return to the country. But the de facto government said that he would be arrested if he set foot in Honduras, citing an array of charges.

Mr. Zelaya has attempted to return at least twice. First, a week after the coup, he tried to fly into the Tegucigalpa airport, soldiers massed on the tarmac and blocked his plane from landing. Then in July, he set up camp just over the border in Nicaragua, and stepped briefly into Honduran territory before returning to Nicaragua. Rumors that Mr. Zelaya was already in the country, or was about to return, have repeatedly circulated through the capital since then. With many of the country’s news outlets allied to the de facto government, there are few sources of independent news, and Hondurans are quick to seize on any rumor.

The United States Embassy in Tegucigalpa gave refuge to Ms. Castro and one of the couple’s sons after the coup. Members of Mr. Zelaya’s cabinet found protection in other Latin embassies.

Mr. Zelaya’s return came as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was scheduled to meet with Costa Rican President Óscar Arias, who has been trying to negotiate a solution to the political conflict. Mr. Zelaya has accepted Mr. Arias’s proposal, which would restore him to the presidency with limited powers and grant an amnesty on all sides. But Mr. Micheletti has rejected it.

As the talks stalled and the international community turned its attention to other matters, Mr. Zelaya has grown impatient. His return to Honduras on the eve of the United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York may bring the issue of Honduras back into forefront.

At the time of the coup, Mr. Zelaya was planning a nonbinding referendum that his opponents said would have been the first step toward allowing him to run for another term in office, which is forbidden under the Honduran constitution.

No country has recognized the de facto government of Mr. Micheletti. The United States, the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have all suspended aid to Honduras. But the Micheletti government has stood fast, insisting that Mr. Zelaya was removed from office legally. Mr. Micheletti has promised to hand over power to a new president who will be elected in national elections scheduled for Nov. 29.

Ousted leader returns to Honduras, defies arrest
By FREDDY CUEVAS
Associated Press
Monday, September 21, 2009 8:03 PM

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras -- Deposed President Manuel Zelaya made a dramatic return to Honduras' capital on Monday, taking shelter from arrest at Brazil's embassy and calling for negotiations with the leaders who forced him from the country at gunpoint. The interim government ordered a 15-hour curfew, but thousands of Zelaya supporters ignored the decreed 4 p.m. (2200 GMT) shutdown and remained outside the embassy, dancing and cheering. Others in the capital started rushing home, lining up at bus stands and frantically looking for taxis. The leftist leader's homecoming creates a sharp new challenge for the interim government that has threatened repeatedly to throw him in jail if he returns. Chants of "Yes we could! Yes we could!" bellowed from the crowd.

Zelaya told The Associated Press that he was trying to establish contact with the interim government to start negotiations on a solution to the standoff that started when he soldiers who flew him out of the country on June 28. "As of now, we are beginning to seek dialogue," he said by telephone, though he gave few details. Talks moderated by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias have been stalled for weeks over the interim government's refusal to accept Zelaya's reinstatement. He also summoned his countrymen to come to the capital for peaceful protests and urged the army to avoid attacking his supporters. "It is the moment of reconciliation," he said.

The government of interim President Roberto Micheletti, who took power after Zelaya's ouster, said the curfew would continue to 7 a.m. (1300 GMT) Wednesday due to "the events of the last few hours." Micheletti, who has promised to step aside following scheduled presidential elections in November, made no other comment on Zelaya's return. The interim government was caught off guard by Zelaya's appearance. Only minutes before he appeared publicly at the embassy, officials said reports of his return were a lie. Zelaya's presence could revive the large demonstrations that disrupted the capital following the coup and threatens to overshadow the presidential election campaign.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton urged both sides to look for a peaceful solution to the crisis. "It is imperative that dialogue begin, that there be a channel of communication between President Zelaya and the de facto regime in Honduras," Rodham Clinton told reporters on the sidelines of the annual U.N. General Assembly session in New York.

The U.S. State Department announced Sept. 4 that it would not recognize results of the presidential vote under current conditions. The coup has shaken up Washington's relations with Honduras, traditionally one of its strongest allies in Central America.

The secretary general of the Organization of American States, Jose Miguel Insulza, called for calm and warned Honduran officials to avoid any violation of the Brazilian diplomatic mission. "They should be responsible for the safety of president Zelaya and the Embassy of Brazil," he said. Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorin said neither his country nor the OAS had any role in Zelaya's journey before taking him in. "We hope this opens a new stage in negotiations," Amorin said. He also warned: "If something happens to Zelaya or our embassy it would be a violation of international law," which bars host countries from arresting people inside diplomatic missions. Honduras' Foreign Relations Department criticized Brazil, saying it was violating international law by "allowing Zelaya, a fugitive of Honduran justice, to make public calls to insurrection and political mobilization from its headquarters." Micheletti urged Brazil in a nationwide radio address to turn Zelaya over to Honduran authorities.

In the days following the coup, at least two of the thousands of demonstrators who took to the streets were killed during clashes with security forces. Thousands of other Hondurans demonstrated in favor of the coup.

The country's Congress and courts, alarmed by Zelaya's political shift into a close alliance with leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Cuba, backed Zelaya's removal. He was arrested on orders of the Supreme Court on charges of treason and abuse of power for ignoring court orders against holding a popular referendum on reforming the constitution.

Micheletti said Zelaya sought to remove a ban on re-election - grounds for immediate removal from office under the Honduran constitution. Zelaya denies any such plan.
International leaders were almost unanimously against the armed removal of the president, alarmed that it could return Latin America to a bygone era of coups and instability. The United States, European Union and other agencies have cut aid to Honduras to press for his return. Zelaya said he had "evaded a thousand obstacles" to return, traveling 15 hours by land in different vehicles. He declined to give specifics on who helped him cross the border, saying that he didn't want to jeopardize their safety.

His staunch supporter, Chavez, described the journey: "President Manuel Zelaya, along with four companions, traveled for two days overland, crossing mountains and rivers, risking their lives. They have made it to Honduras." If the interim administration attempts to imprison Zelaya, protesters who have demonstrated against his ouster could turn violent, said Vicki Gass at the Washington Office on Latin America. "There's a saying about Honduras that people can argue in the morning and have dinner in the evening, but I'm not sure this will happen in this case," said Gass. "It's been 86 days since the coup. Something had to break and this might be it."

The following statement by Michelleti will appear in Tuesday’s print edition. It is certainly arguable that the interim government has respected human rights and press freedom, as he alleges. (He is identified at the end of the article, tellingly, as the president of Honduras.)Washington Post

Washington Post
Moving Forward in Honduras
By Roberto Micheletti
Tuesday, September 22, 2009

My country is in an unusual position this week. Former president Manuel Zelaya has surreptitiously returned to Honduras, still claiming to be the country's legitimate leader, despite the fact that a constitutional succession took place on June 28. Amid all of the claims that are likely to be made in coming days, the former president will not mention that the people of Honduras have moved on since the events of that day or that our citizens are looking forward to free, fair and transparent elections on Nov. 29.

The international community has wrongfully condemned the events of June 28 and mistakenly labeled our country as undemocratic. I must respectfully disagree. As the true story slowly emerges, there is a growing sense that what happened in Honduras that day was not without merit. On June 28, the Honduran Supreme Court issued an arrest warrant for Zelaya for his blatant violations of our constitution, which marked the end of his presidency. To this day, an overwhelming majority of Hondurans support the actions that ensured the respect of the rule of law in our country.
Underlying all the rhetoric about a military overthrow are facts. Simply put, coups do not leave civilians in control over the armed forces, as is the case in Honduras today. Neither do they allow the independent functioning of democratic institutions -- the courts, the attorney general's office, the electoral tribunal. Nor do they maintain a respect for the separation of powers. In Honduras, the judicial, legislative and executive branches are all fully functioning and led by civilian authorities.

Coups do not allow freedom of assembly, either. They do not guarantee freedom of the press, much less a respect for human rights. In Honduras, these freedoms remain intact and vibrant. And on Nov. 29 our country plans to hold the ultimate civic exercise of any democracy: a free and open presidential election.
Although much of the international community disagrees with our past actions, we can all agree on the necessity of ensuring Honduras's full commitment to the electoral process. Our citizens believe that the upcoming presidential election is the best way to guarantee peace and democracy. While the election will take place in little more than 60 days, the electoral process has been underway for some time. The election is being convened by an autonomous body, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, whose magistrates were selected by Congress in early 2009 and ratified by then-President Zelaya. The autonomous body began the electoral process with presidential primary elections -- which were supervised by the Organization of American States -- in 2008 also under former president Zelaya. The upcoming election will include Honduras's first independent presidential candidate -- a rarity in all of Latin America.

The winner of the November election will take office as president of Honduras in January 2010. At that moment my transitional administration will cease, and the newly sworn-in president will hold all the authority vested to him by our country's constitution.

Our whole country -- whether members of political parties, youths, students or members of civil society, government, parental organizations and private businesses -- is committed to guaranteeing transparent elections. Voter turnout will be a constitutional expression of self-determination and a demonstration of national sovereignty. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal has invited independent observers from around the globe to observe our voting process. Our country is open to the world. All organizations -- churches, universities, think tanks, nongovernmental organizations -- that wish to witness firsthand this great exercise of self-determination and democracy are welcome.

We are, of course, disappointed with the position of the United States and the European Union, both longtime friends. We look forward to continuing dialogue with the United States, the European Union and the rest of the international community to prove our commitment to democracy and the Honduran people's love of freedom. Coercive action directed at our nation will only harm less fortunate Hondurans, whose hospitals, schools, roads and other institutions rely greatly on our friends' generous assistance, for which all of our citizens are immensely grateful.
I have said from the moment I was sworn in as president of Honduras that I do not intend to remain in office one second more than what our constitution mandates. On Jan. 27 I will hand over leadership responsibilities to the ninth president of our 27-year-old democracy. Such actions are in keeping with the desire of the majority of our people: the strengthening of our democracy.

The writer is president of Honduras.

Honduran Candidates Back Negotiated Settlement, Micheletti’s US visas revoked, Zelaya Supporters Plan Election Boycott Unless He Returns

Dear Readers, I have not abandoned you. Spent all last Saturday and Sunday at the annual meeting of volunteer country specialists for Amnesty International-USA, fortunately taking place only a few blocks from my home, whereas others came in from all over the US. I had hoped the guy in charge of Honduras would show up at our meeting to give his take on the situation there, but he failed to appear. My new temporary housemate from South Africa, astrophysicist Thebe, accompanied me for the first morning session, giving him a chance to speak briefly with the Amnesty people there working on South Africa. Sunday evening, we went to a party to say farewell to Mitch, a fellow Peace Corps volunteer first met in Honduras, also my former housemate, now moving with his girl friend Daniela to a new federal job in Austin, Texas. Then, it was up very early the next morning to do a hospital interpretation in a suburb. After that, I began feeling ill (not swine flu, much better now), so I beg my readers’ patience in waiting for blog updates. At age 71, I’m finding it somewhat harder to burn the candle at both ends, though it's still very rare for me to become ill.

As for Honduras, in addition to the cancellation of millions of dollars in aid, El Nuevo Herald (Spanish-language version of the Miami Herald) reports that Micheletti confirmed that the US has revoked both his tourist and diplomatic visas. Micheletti termed it an example of the pressure the US is exerting on his country. Juan Barona, the leader of the “resistance,” as the pro-Zelaya movement calls itself, predicts (again according El Nuevo Herald) that the whole issue will be resolved before the end of September. Does he have some inside information?

Honduras candidates back negotiated solution to coup
By John McPhaul
Reuters
Wednesday, September 16, 2009 9:37 PM

SAN JOSE, Costa Rica - The front-runners in Honduras' presidential race backed a negotiated solution to the country's political crisis on Wednesday, but stopped short of calling for the return of ousted president Manuel Zelaya. The candidates said they supported the efforts of Costa Rican President Oscar Arias to resolve the crisis touched off by the June coup that forced Zelaya into exile.

Arias has proposed that Zelaya return to office to serve out the remainder of his term, while coup participants would be given amnesty, but the de facto government has refused to consider any deal that would allow Zelaya back. The candidates stressed they were not speaking on behalf of the de facto government.

Zelaya was arrested and flown out of the country by the military on June 28 after he angered the judiciary by seeking constitutional changes that would allow presidents to seek reelection. The leftist leader, who allied himself with Venezuela's anti-U.S. President Hugo Chavez, has denied he intended to prolong his stay in power. Zelaya's supporters say the de facto government is seeking to hold out until the general elections on November 29 in order to legitimize the coup.

The United States cut more than $30 million in aid to the country earlier this month as it stepped up pressure on the coup leaders. Washington has also warned it could not recognize the elections as legitimate because of Zelaya's ouster.

The following is from a website called World War 4. Incidentally, Adolfo Facusse, quoted below, and his wife are wealthy Hondurans who have long supported US-based medical brigades. I once attended a lavish party at their palatial home.

Honduras: resistance plans election boycott
Submitted by WW4 Report on Tue, 09/15/2009 - 11:26.

Two Honduran presidential candidates announced in a communiqué on Sept. 9 that they will not participate in the Nov. 29 general elections unless four conditions are met: the return of President José Manuel Zelaya Rosales, who was removed from office by a military coup on June 28; an end to human rights violations; the demilitarization of Honduran society; and an end to a slander campaign against the leftist Democratic Unification (UD) party, which currently holds four of the 128 seats in the Congress. The two candidates are former union leader Carlos H. Reyes and legislative deputy César Ham, who heads the UD. Both are active in the National Front Against the Coup d'Etat, the leading resistance coalition; the front issued a communiqué on Sept. 7 calling for a boycott of "the electoral farce called by the coup perpetrators."

The announcements by the front and the two leftist candidates seemed to conclude a debate within the resistance on whether to participate in elections under the present circumstances. The president, three vice presidents, 256 legislative deputies and alternates, 40 deputies to the Central American Parliament, and 298 mayors are to be selected in the balloting, which was scheduled in May before the coup; some 7.5 million Hondurans are eligible to vote. The de facto government headed by Roberto Micheletti—along with the two traditional parties, the National Party (PN) and the Liberal Party (PL)—have been hoping that the November vote would give them a way to legitimize Zelaya's removal. (AP, Sept. 9; Frente Nacional Contra el Golpe de Estado communiqué #23, Spt. 7)

Most countries, including the US, have indicated that they won't recognize elections held under the de facto government. On Sept. 10 the European Commission announced in Brussels that the European Union will not send observers to the November vote if it is overseen by the coup regime. (Latin American Herald Tribune, Sept. 10 from EFE)
Honduran business owners reportedly have a new strategy for making the elections successful. They are considering a plan to "give a discount in all the businesses to people who vote, so that people will go to the stores with the ink on their fingers [after voting] and get an automatic discount on any purchase they make anywhere in the country," National Association of Industries of Honduras (ANDI) president Adolfo Facussé said in the Sept. 9 issue of the daily La Tribuna. The goal is "to strengthen democracy and overcome voter abstention," Facussé told the paper, which is owned by his cousin, former president Carlos Flores Facussé (1998-2002). (La Tribuna, Sept. 9)

In addition to clarifying its position on the elections, the National Front used its Sept. 7 communiqué to announce the formation of a National Coordinating Committee for the next three months, a commitment to "struggling for a Constituent Assembly" to rewrite the 1982 Constitution, and an effort to defend longtime environmental activist Father José Andrés Tamayo from the de facto government's efforts to deport him to his native El Salvador. The front also announced the formation of an International Commission to coordinate solidarity work with activists outside Honduras. (Frente Nacional communiqué #23, Sept. 7/09; Comisión Internacional Nota informativa #1, Sept. 7; Prensa Latina, Sept. 8; Honduras Coup 2009 blog, Sept. 7).
From Weekly News Update on the Americas, Sept. 13

Europe Threatens Further Sanctions, Current Election Campaign Disrupted, Vote Legitimacy Questioned

Whoops, on the last posting, forgot to give it a title. Glad I have understanding and discerning readers.

My audio book reader at Recordings for the Blind said he could not go back and change even the first reference he made to Teh-GOOSE as the pronunciation of Teguc, a short form for the capital city. The book recording is already finished and ready to go. So, I must live with it. It’s a small thing, but big to me. I never want to be associated with gringoisms. (If you want something done right, do it yourself!)

I also gave an interview not long ago for a program broadcast in Indonesian by Voice of America. I just received recordings of that interview, excerpted in two segments that aired on different days. The style is something like that used on NPR, with me speaking in English, then a voiceover interpretation into Indonesian. It’s interesting to be on the other end of interpretation for a change instead of being the interpreter myself.

An article in the Spanish-language version of the Miami Herald reports that political tensions are easing in Honduras as people and candidates put their energy into the current presidential campaign. Candidates aligned against Zelaya are predicting a transparent and free election that will calm international opposition. It’s true that if the election appears fair, with or without recognized international observers, it will be harder for other countries to fail to recognize its legitimacy. However, Zelaya and his supporters are not disappearing quietly into the night; they’re demanding that no one recognize the election and promise disruptions. They are already tearing up campaign posters, throwing rocks at rallies, and seem particularly angry with Zelaya’s own vice president, Elvin Santos, the candidate from Zelaya’s Liberal Party, whom they blame for joining in his ouster. I don't know if there is candidate from one of the smaller parties supporting Zelaya's return, but it seems that most candidates are distancing themselves from him. Maybe his supporters will boycott the election altogether. It appears that the Honduran clash, instead of arriving at a compromise, as Arias had envisioned, is becoming more polarized and less concerned with achieving any moral high ground and upholding principles such as democracy and rule of law; rather, each side is becoming more partisan and digging in its heels, vowing to fight on until victory or death.

A reader of my blog comments: I believe there is a genuine fear that Zelaya, with Chavez's backing, might gain total control of Honduras through his demagogic politics if he is allowed back into the country.

While Obama wants to support Zelaya as the democratically elected president, he would not want to be blamed for completely losing Honduras to Chavez. The US has a military base in Honduras, but intervening militarily would be a big no-no. It's a delicate situation. The US has not said categorically that it won't recognize the Honduran election, but has indicated that it probably will not do so under present circumstances. However, maybe Honduras can convince the US and the world that its election has been legitimate, even if Zelaya remains outside.

Another reader elaborates regarding: the legitimate fear on the part of Honduran politicians, that once Zelaya gets his foot in the door, now with many Nicaraguan and Venezuelan agents inside Honduras, that something bad may happen and the US will not come to the rescue. I kind of think this is a bluff on the part of the U.S, though. What if Zelaya's anointed successor wins? Presumably this is a result Obama and the OAS could live with. Hence the “may not recognize" language [in terms of the election].

The following is just in from a struggling single mother in Honduras, who blames Zelaya and his supporters, not the interim government, for her family’s problems. She’s just one voice, but she claims that “the resistance [Zelaya’s] forces are dwindling, while Zelaya himself goes to Washington to beg for more punishment for our poor country, canceling assistance to the most needy; he’s a pretty poor Honduran, meanwhile the world doesn’t want to see that he uses government funds for his personal motorcycle, his horses, and his vast ranches in the name of all the poor people he proclaims he represents, what a hypocrite.” Que inquietud aqui en esta bella patria, los movimientos del grupo de resistencia ya son bastante escasos.y vaya discurso el de mel zelaya en EEUU pidiendo que se castigue este pueblo canselandole la ayuda a los mas necesitados el se a comportado en esa y otras ocaciones como un pesimo hondureño.si antes teniamos limitantes hoy se sienten mas es una pena que el mundo no quiera ver lo de zelaya a quien se le comprueba gastos de estado en su motocicleta personal sus caballos y sus rancherias quiza hacia todo esto en nombre de los pobres como el tanto a proclamado que pena con este señor.

Although the European Union has already suspended aid to and diplomatic contacts with Honduras, it reportedly is considering further sanctions, as per the article below.

EU to warn Honduras of further sanctions over coup
Reuters
Thursday, September 10, 2009 9:58 AM

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union will warn the de facto government of Honduras next week that it could face further sanctions unless a peaceful solution is found to a crisis triggered by the coup against President Manuel Zelaya. A draft statement due to be approved by EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on Monday said the 27-nation bloc would continue to restrict political contacts with the de facto government installed after the June 28 military takeover.
In July, the European Commission said it was suspending all budgetary support payments to Honduras after the failure of efforts to resolve a crisis. It has also suspended development assistance. "Until a peaceful settlement is found, the EU will stand ready to take further restrictive measures, including targeting those members of the de facto government who are seen to be blocking progress on a negotiated solution," the statement, seen by Reuters, said.

The statement reaffirmed EU support for mediation by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias and the Organization of American States and urged all sides to work for a peaceful negotiated solution and the restoration of constitutional order ahead of November elections.

The statement also expressed deep concern about reported human rights violations, including threats to rights activists, arbitrary detentions and repression of peaceful demonstrators.

The United States announced last week it was terminating more than $30 million in non-humanitarian aid to Honduras to pressure the de facto government to step down and reinstate Zelaya, who is in exile.

Thanks to those who contacted me by e-mail on the occasion of my late son’s birthday last Friday, even some people who never knew him (that was your loss). I do appreciate that he is not forgotten.

My book has now been read on tape for the Library for the Blind. I had thought of reading it myself, but was intimidated by the equipment and really don't have much extra time. Besides, Mr. Bradford, the head reader, was eager to do it himself and he discouraged me. He was very careful, but I'm a bit annoyed that, on his own initiative, he changed the abbreviated form of the capital city from TEH-goose (emphasis on the first syllable) to teh-GOOSE (emphasis on the second), which is what he heard it called years ago when he was there. I've heard both short forms, but during my time, the former was much more common and, in Spanish, it was the only way it was said and the only way that I said it myself. The second-syllable version was only used sometimes by gringos speaking English. Unless the listener is a native Spanish speaker, I don't think it matters that much. Of course, the full name has a completely different emphasis, Teguci-GAL-pa. However, in common parlance, the full name is not used often.

I told him I don't think it would be worth going back to change all the references to the short pronunciation with which I am more familiar. I didn't anticipate that the short form is sometimes different in English and might have been different when he was there (the man is 95 years old). However, I would not want to be saying that myself when I first introduce that term or to endorse it's pronunciation as teh-GOOSE, as I would totally lose my Spanish cred in that case. So I asked him to please erase any such reference. Let the reader think it's just his gringo pronunciation, which it is.

Now, from the north coast of Honduras, not unexpectedly, comes word of rising prices and more unrest in the cities, with crowd control and tear gas used to disperse demonstrators. Unless things calm down, I don’t know that I will be going back for the IHS medical brigade next Feb. although the need will be greater than ever. It’s necessary to arrive by air to a major city, either Teguc or San Pedro, where demonstrations are concentrated.

Now it's time, or will be very soon, much as they hate to admit it, for the interim government to let Zelaya come back and endure until January—with safeguards, of course, that he and Chavez won't try any dirty tricks. The US threat not to recognize the Honduran elections is, to me, more serious than the aid cut off. Unfortunately, we have the neighboring specter of Chavez relentlessly cracking down on all opposition to him--step-by-step, taking over press, independent labor unions, oil production, so there has to be some way to assure that Zelaya doesn't try something similar, if and when he returns. I don't know how such safeguards can be put into place, given that many Latin American countries are sympathetic to Chavez and beholden to him for cheap oil, though perhaps some are starting to see through him. It's a dilemma. Trust, or the lack thereof, between the parties is the main problem.

If the Honduran elections are carried out without yielding to the accords, then there won't be any international observers there with any credibility, certainly none from the US except maybe from the Heritage Foundation or another well-known right-wing group, and the aid cutoff will continue and probably get worse, since not all US humanitarian aid has been cut off yet. And no one will recognize Honduran officials diplomatically. It's really a no-win situation. The US can help by putting in place some guarantees in case Zelaya/Chavez try to pull something, but Micheletti is going to have to let Zelaya return, protect him, and not arrest him, period. The time has come. Whether waiting until the end of September or October, as my Latin American commentator has suggested below, would help, then maybe that's OK as long as Zelaya does go back before the elections and serves out his term peacefully until January. The problem is that since Micheletti and company have taken such a strong stand, they don't want to lose face by backing down and they’ve come to believe their own rhetoric.

Just got word that peace advocacy groups around the world are engaging in a “Fast for Honduras.” So support of Zelaya has gone beyond top diplomatic circles worldwide.

A commentator on this blog points out the difficulty of putting any guarantees in place to make sure that Zelaya serves out his term peacefully. She says: I agree that Micheletti would be much more likely to come around if the U.S. could, as you suggest, "put in place some guarantees in case Zelaya/Chavez try to pull something." But I don't see what, realistically, Obama could guarantee. To send in the Marines if Chavez sends in his thugs? To put sugar in the gas tanks of the sound trucks Zelaya was about to blanket Teguc and other populated areas with? To jawbone these guys if they "try to pull something"? We've already kept hands off in every way except those that are easy and convenient: the visas, the aid cutoffs. It would really be putting our thumb on the scales to wait until something unseemly has happened, then call up Zelaya and say, "You see, now, Mr. President, this is exactly what your opponents said you'd do. We vouched that you'd never dream of it, and now that you've gone and done it, we're going to have to ask you to stop." It also wouldn't work. Running out the clock is a game two can play.

There's so much we don't know. I surely hope that Micheletti is gearing up to say, "Oh what the hell. We've made our point. C'mon back, Mel; just try to stay out of the way."

Here’s an excerpt from an editorial in today’s Washington Post entitled “Obama’s Summit Flop”: One of the first to draw some hardheaded conclusions has been -- no surprise -- Hillary Clinton. In April the new secretary of state suggested at a congressional hearing that bad U.S. relations with Chávez were the result of the Bush administration's refusal to engage with the caudillo. "Let's see if we can begin to turn that relationship," she proposed.
It took less than three months for Clinton to be disabused of the idea -- a stretch during which Chávez took advantage of the administration's extended hand to launch another crackdown on his own domestic opposition while attempting to foment a left-wing coup in Honduras. Now Clinton is devoting herself to boxing Chávez out of the continuing Honduras crisis; far from consulting the Venezuelan strongman, she went out of her way to meet with journalists from a television station he is trying to close.

The last word (actually quite a few words) goes to our Latin American correspondent (not Honduran, by the way), copied verbatim, with only a few editorial and spelling corrections (and I doubt the OAS would intervene militarily if Zelaya stepped out of line):

If Zelaya is allowed to return only one month before elections, the army will be under the command of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and he won’t be allowed to purge its leadership and to use it to force others to comply with his desires. Besides, he will be subject to international supervision and will therefore be forced to be on his very best behavior to avoid a possible OAS military intervention if he tries to push his luck.

For this reason, if Micheletti gives way and adopts the Arias mediating proposal and, according to their present provisions, the Honduran elections are pushed forward one month, we would logically expect Zelaya not to be allowed back in power until September 29, one month before the new date for elections on October 29. However, if the Arias mediating proposals are adopted without pushing elections forward one month, then, for the same reasons, I don’t expect Zelaya to be allowed back by Micheletti before October 29.

Of course, both of these alternatives are based on the Micheletti government agreeing to the Arias proposal and US wishes. As I told you before, I consider this alternative to be less probable than that he will persevere in his present course. Micheletti is a cattleman and I think he has somewhat taurine characteristics. This means that once he makes up his mind to charge, one should expect him to keep moving forward at top speed until he hits a wall. In Latin America, we would say, "Hasta que se destarre!"

Henceforth, I consider that there exists a greater probability that the de facto government will shoot for the moon or, like we say, "Va a jugarse todo por el todo!" or in poker jargon that he will risk everything on the last card and gamble his last remaining funds. The de facto government is even willing to face US sanctions because the oligarchy is so isolated, feels desperate, and is not willing to trust other Latin American governments, the OAS, or the US government. This is the consequence of having demonized Zelaya and Chavez and believing that there is an international conspiracy to throw Honduras to the big bad wolves, Chavez, Ortega, Castro, and Zelaya.

From their perspective, they do not trust international guarantees or supervision and are simply trying to keep the wolves away from the fold or the foxes from the henhouse altogether or at least for a little while longer. I don’t think that they are considering that it is preferable to admit as soon as possible the wolf in the premises under the hunter's supervision or the fox into the henhouse under the owner's eye than to have to admit him later without any third-party supervision or guarantees. This odd position becomes sensible when one considers that they do not trust the impartiality of the third parties in question and perceive them as hidden allies of the Latin American left and in basic agreement with an international conspiracy to throw them to the leftist wolves. This is why I believe that they will persevere in cutting their own necks by following their present course!

Now all we have to do is to wait and see how the game will play out, while trying to control our fear that the very worst could happen and that some random unanticipated violent event could trigger a chain reaction that could blow up the powder keg and begin a civil war. In my opinion, this is not an idle worry but a very real possibility that increases as time goes by without a solution to the crisis!

Remember that nearly all participants in the Honduran presidential campaign process that the de facto government just began are uneducated and living at extreme poverty levels. Think for a second about all that is at stake for the participants which is nothing less than who will eat regularly during the next presidential administration. Consider the partisan confrontational danger always present in a Latin American presidential political campaign that has now been exacerbated in Honduras by the recent political discord. Take into account the desire of the "sargentos politicos" to court the favor of their political superiors and acquire political prestige by stimulating their followers to have frequent confrontations with the backers of their political rivals. Think also about the possible behavior under confrontational stress of the political mobs that surround each opposing "sargento político". As you know, these mobs are usually under the influence of the cheap alcohol and marijuana pitos that the sargentos politicos hand out and are very difficult to control even under the most favorable of circumstances.

Finally reflect on the fact that if there is any violence, there will be widespread public protests and that the army and the police will be called upon to repress popular protests. Also, that we cannot anticipate how strongly these forces will react or overreact. Anything could happen. The army and the police could very well violently put down popular protests or even do the opposite and refuse to repress the population.

Moreover if violent repression occurs, a segment of the military and the police could very well revolt and come into conflict with another portion of the armed forces in the population's defense or backing Zelaya. Also, that if the army and the police will refuse to repress the population that the situation could get out-of-hand and become anarchic with widespread lynchings of de facto governmental figures. Either way there could be hell to pay! There is a very strong probability of the beginning of a Honduran civil war.

Of course, once that happens, an OAS-solicited foreign military intervention for peacekeeping or law enforcement purposes will be necessary if the conflict becomes bloody or is not over soon.

Moreover, even if the de facto government has its way and manages to carry out an election and to hand over power to a new Honduran administration, they will only open themselves to accusations about the honesty of such a process and manage to make a political martyr out of Zelaya in the eyes of the majority of the Honduran population. All this will of course only set the stage for Zelaya or Zelaya's followers’ future return to power in Honduras.

I believe that the poor schmucks in the Micheletti administration by their myopic counterproductive actions are only digging their own political graves and ensuring the future domination in Honduras of the demagogic left and the eventual loss of power of the present Honduran oligarchy. In my eyes, they are like the victims of an accursed self-fulfilling prophecy playing out in slow motion before our very eyes! Perhaps, we need a modern day Aescilys to capture it in a drama and to preserve it for future generations to try to stop the politicians in other countries from making the same mistakes!

But even this is utopian. "Nadie aprende por cabeza ajena! El hombre es el único animal que tropieza varias veces con la misma piedra!" [No one learns via another’s mind. Man is the only animal that keeps tripping over the same stone.]

US Cuts Aid to Honduras, Chavez Lauds Decision

Slowly, the Obama administration is ratcheting up the pressure on the Honduran de facto government, cutting off instead of just suspending $30+ million in non-humanitarian aid. But more crucial is saying that election results would not be recognized as matters now stand, a big blow to the effort to run out the clock. Regardless of legalities and the constitution, Obama doesn't want the US to be the only country to recognize election results under the de facto (illegitimate?) government, even though this was not a classical military coup, as there is still civilian rule. Some Latin American countries are talking "trade embargo" at the same time that efforts are underway to have the US lift its embargo against Cuba, a blatant double standard. Which side in Honduras represents "real" democracy? That is the question. If the election is not recognized, then Honduras is in big trouble.

In our local Spanish-language press, a column by Jorge Ramos cites 3,500 arrests in Honduras, at the same time, giving both sides of the argument their due. He ends the article by quoting Micheletti as saying that if he commits an error like Zelaya did, then he should be arrested, just as he plans to do with Zelaya if he returns.

Zelaya, speaking in Washington, is quoted as saying that the US should cut off all aid to Honduras. Not all aid has been stopped, but a substantial step was taken (see article below). Chavez, from Iran, praised the decision to cut aid, but it might be best if he would just keep his mouth shut!

The Washington Post editorial shown in 3rd place below agrees with the position taken by my Latin American commentator in these pages.

US cuts aid to Honduras in support of ex-leader
By FREDDY CUEVAS
Associated Press
Friday, September 4, 2009 2:04 AM

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras -- Honduras' coup-installed government dug in its heels after Washington cut off millions of dollars in aid to the Central American nation, vowing that ousted President Manuel Zelaya would not return to power despite increasing international pressure. Hours after President Barack Obama's administration cut off all aid to the Honduran government, the government of interim President Roberto Micheletti sent a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton condemning the decision Thursday night. "Whether you wish us well or not, we will pay any price, we will bear any burden, we will take on any difficulty, we will support any friend and oppose any enemy to ensure the survival and the success of liberty and democracy in our country," interim Interior Minister Oscar Raul Matute said in the letter, echoing President John F. Kennedy's 1961 inaugural address.

Washington's action, announced as Clinton was meeting with Zelaya, makes permanent a temporary suspension of U.S. assistance put in place after he was deposed in June. It cuts more than $31 million in non-humanitarian assistance, including $11 million remaining in a more than a $200 million five-year assistance program run by the Millennium Challenge Corporation. "The Secretary of State has made the decision, consistent with U.S. legislation, recognizing the need for strong measures in light of the continued resistance to the adoption of the San Jose Accord by the de facto regime and continuing failure to restore democratic, constitutional rule to Honduras," State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said.

After meeting with Clinton, Zelaya welcomed the move. "It is gratifying that the United States has taken a strong position against the coup," he told The Associated Press in a brief interview. Zelaya said more pressure may be necessary.
The San Jose accord, brokered by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias, aims to return Zelaya to power with limited authority until elections now set for November. But Micheletti has refused to accept it, prompting Clinton's decision to cut aid. Clinton made the decision even though she did not determine that Zelaya's ouster met the U.S. legal definition of a military coup d'etat. Such a finding would have forced the administration to cut off assistance and had been urged by some leading lawmakers, including Democratic Rep. Howard Berman of California, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. "This one looks, walks and quacks like a duck," Berman wrote in Thursday's editions of the Los Angeles Times. "It's time to stop hedging and call this bird what it is. And if, for whatever reason, the State Department lawyers do not conclude that this was a coup, Congress should examine other ways by which it can directly affect the flow of aid."

Clinton did not make that finding because Zelaya's ouster involved "the participation of both the legislative and judicial branches of government as well as the military," Kelly said.

Zelaya was deposed and exiled on June 28 amid suspicions among his opponents that he wanted to overturn a constitutional provision limiting Honduran presidents to a single term. He has denied that was his goal.

In Honduras, representatives of the interim Honduran government said the decision won't return Zelaya to power. But his supporters said the move was an important step to apply more pressure on Micheletti's government.

Gabriela Nunez, Micheletti's finance minister, said withholding funds is a mistake and that U.S. should respect the dignity of the Honduran people. "America must understand that what happened in Honduras was not a coup, but a presidential succession," she said.

Juan Barahona, who has been leading protests in Honduras against the coup, said he hopes the suspension of U.S. aid can make a difference. He said Micheletti's government "cannot hold on to power without outside income," but that he feared the interim leader will simply "sacrifice the aspirations of our people."

Kelly said the United States would not recognize the results of the election under current conditions and stressed it was imperative that the vote meet international standards. "That election must be undertaken in a free, fair and transparent manner," Kelly said. "It must also be free of taint and open to all Hondurans to exercise their democratic franchise. At this moment, we would not be able to support the outcome of the scheduled elections."

In addition to the aid cut, he said the State Department would revoke the U.S. visas of an unspecified number of Honduran officials who are backing Micheletti. The department had previously revoked the visas of four Honduran officials allied with Micheletti. It has also stopped issuing most visas at the U.S. embassy in Honduras.
Brazil, meanwhile, announced it is suspending a 2004 agreement that exempts Hondurans from needing a visa to enter the South American nation. Brazil previously pressed for Zelaya's return through the suspension of energy accords and the withdrawal of its ambassador from Honduras.

Chavez welcomes US decision to cut aid to Honduras
Associated Press
Friday, September 4, 2009 9:03 PM

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is welcoming the United States' decision to cut millions of dollars in aid to Honduras. Chavez says "it's about time" Washington took action against the government that has been in charge in Honduras since a June 28 coup ousted his ally, President Manuel Zelaya.

U.S. State Department spokesman Ian Kelly announced the decision to cut more than $31million in non-humanitarian assistance on Thursday. Kelly added that the U.S. would not recognize the results of Honduras' upcoming presidential elections under current conditions.

Chavez told Venezuelan state television by phone from Iran on Friday that he hopes the U.S. will make good on its decision.

The Honduran Impasse
How the de facto government, and congressional Republicans, serve the purposes of Hugo Chávez, editorial, Washington Post
Saturday, September 5, 2009

THE AIM of U.S. policy in Honduras should be to reinforce the principles of democracy and the rule of law and to thwart those -- including ousted president Manuel Zelaya and his mentor, Hugo Chávez -- who are seeking to subvert them. At stake is not just the future of Honduras, a tiny Central American country, but the survival of threatened liberal institutions across Latin America.

It follows that the best solution to the crisis is that laid out in July by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias. Under its terms, Mr. Zelaya, who was arrested and deported by the military in June, would be allowed to return and resume his post -- thus reversing the clear breach of democratic order that occurred. However, the president would have to form a unity government under international supervision, he would have to abandon his attempt to hold an illegal referendum on changing the Honduran constitution, and he would have to leave office when his term ends in January.

This outcome would be a victory for the Hondurans who supported Mr. Zelaya's ouster because they feared he was attempting to mimic Mr. Chávez's dismantling of Venezuela's democracy. Mr. Chávez would lose his Honduran puppet by means he could not contest: A new president would be chosen in an internationally monitored election this fall.

By refusing to accept the Arias plan, Honduras's de facto government -- and its supporters in Washington -- are playing into the hands of the Latin American left. The Tegucigalpa administration of Roberto Micheletti is trying to resist pressure to allow Mr. Zelaya's return until the election is held and Mr. Zelaya's term expires. That would serve to undermine the legitimacy of any new president and prolong the crisis indefinitely. That's why the Obama administration was right to formalize a suspension of $31 million in aid this week and to join other Latin American governments in saying that "at this moment" it "would not be able to support the outcome of the elections."

The administration's action was not without risk. If the Micheletti regime digs in its heels, the result could be the very destabilization that the United States and its moderate allies hope to avoid. But the Obama administration won't have much chance of rallying Latin American governments against the anti-democratic abuses of Mr. Chávez or Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega if it is not willing to use its leverage in Honduras, a country whose economy would collapse without aid, free trade and worker remittances from the United States.

In fact, it seems probable that Mr. Micheletti's government would have yielded by now if not for the encouragement of Republicans in Congress. Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) seems to think the best way to help Honduras is to block the confirmation of crucial administration diplomatic appointments in Latin America, including Arturo Valenzuela, a highly respected scholar and diplomat who should be helping to untangle this mess as assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs. Once again, the only beneficiary of such obstructionism will be Mr. Chávez.

Marking my Late Son’s Birthday, Update on Honduras

September 4 is my son Andrew’s birthday, an occasion sadly marked by his absence. Readers of my book will remember him. I do not plan on working or going anywhere on that day, as is my custom. I pray that none of my readers will ever have the experience of losing a child.

As for Honduras, Zelaya spoke at George Washington U. in our fair city on Wed., but unfortunately, I had to work, as I would have liked to hear him speak. In fact, I did get to hear him via a video shot by the Washington Post. He appeared in a suit and tie, without his cowboy hat. He denied he had planned to conduct a referendum, arguing that it was only a non-binding “poll” on whether the populace wanted to reform the constitution. The “coup” leaders, he declared, were a small group holding the people of Honduras hostage. He depicted Chavez as being unfairly targeted as a whipping boy, when he was really just helping Honduras. Zelaya said he would be meeting with Secretary Clinton the next day, where he would urge the US to take stronger measures against the de facto government. Zelaya also held a news conference at the OAS where he declared that the OAS will not recognize the November elections being held in that country. Micheletti had predicted that in November, with the elections, the crisis would end. Failure of the rest of the world to recognize the elections would deal a huge blow to the efforts of the de facto government and create ongoing complications for Honduras.

A vice chancellor of the interim government, Marta Lorena Alvarado, in an article appearing in El Nuevo Herald, said it’s fine for Sec. Clinton to meet with Zelaya, but that she should also listen to the side of the interim government. Alvarado asked the secretary to recognize the upcoming elections in Honduras.

El Pregonero, a local Catholic Spanish-language newspaper, polled five DC passersby as to whether they thought Zelaya should return to power. Three said yes, two said no. They were not identified as Hondurans, but, I suspect, the breakdown within Honduras might be similar.

Amnesty International’s Central America country specialists have signed a letter headlined: An ousted President. A disenfranchised population. An overthrown democracy.
Urge Secretary Clinton to ensure resolution to the political crisis and prevent further human rights abuses in Honduras!

Here below is my Latin American commentator again. I sure hope he’s wrong, but he may well be right. Just some modest yielding by the interim government, with safeguards, would satisfy most Zelaya supporters (except perhaps Chavez). The Hondurans who support Zelaya who have been in touch with me are not sophisticated folks--they just like the guy because they think he tried to help them (free light bulbs, higher wages) and because he was duly elected. They would be happy to see him make a speech, cheer him on, and welcome him home again. However, there is also a chance of violence if he comes back and that is worrisome. Things have not been exactly peaceful since he's been gone, but, by Honduran standards, they have not been so bad. Most people are going about their business as usual, especially outside the two major cities and even in the cities, the biggest problem has been roads blocked with burning tires. Of course, demonstrators have been injured, as per the Amnesty statement. So, we shall see.

Here's the Latin American commentator:
The more I think of the Honduran situation the more I believe two possible scenarios are likely.

Scenario number one, which is possible if the US government and the Honduran de facto government are in cahoots and everything is prearranged beforehand.

The Honduran de facto government agrees to implement the Arias mediation plan after September 29. This will allow the elections to be held on October 29 and the army to be under the commando of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. Under this scenario the de facto government would comply with the OAS demand to return Zelaya to power and to not allow a military coup in the hemisphere. At the same time Zelaya could not purge the army command and substitute his military opponents with officers that will respond to him. Also, it will be too late for Zelaya to stand for reelection or to nominate a candidate of a new political party that will have his support.

This would ensure the ruling oligarchy to continue dominating Honduran politics for the next four years while allowing the OAS and the US government to fulfill their democratic commitments. This solution would ALSO allow the Obama administration to "Estar al mismo tiempo con Dios y con el Diablo" and to satisfy its hemispheric democratic commitment while not throwing Honduras to the leftist wolves and thus giving the right wing Republicans grounds to accuse him of threatening US security interests! This scenario could even provide the US government an opportunity to publicly assume a posture of hemispheric democratic commitment by apparently triggering the capitulation of the Honduran de facto government to the requirements of the Arias solution by briefly enforcing a closing off of economic aid to Honduras or a trade embargo that could be later be countermanded or annulled when Zelaya takes office.

Obviously, once annulled, the economic aid that was temporarily not provided could be offset by increasing similar aid before the close of the fiscal year. This first scenario would obviously be the one that would best ensure a peaceful democratic election and hand off of power to a pro-oligarchical regime.

The second scenario is that an unintelligent, stubborn, and reactionary Honduran de facto administration would find some silly suspicious reason to object to the previous intelligent solution of its predicament and would persevere in not allowing Zelaya to return to power even if it received assurances beforehand that Zelaya would not be able to move against its interests and that the army leadership that supported the oligarchy was still in function.

In that case the US would be forced to ratchet up its sanctions to keep its democratic face and the specific outcome would be uncertain but very likely much more violent.

The first possible outcome would be that a successful peaceful and transparent election would take place and that the de facto administration would manage to hand off power peacefully to a new administration that would continue to run the country in the oligarchy's interests. However, the possibility of this non-violent solution would be much lower than in the case of the first scenario.

The second possible outcome would be to an unsuccessful election and handover of power with public protests, a possible military revolt and bloodshed and civil strife that could end in the interruption of the Honduran democratic process and one of the following:
1- A possible leftist takeover 2- A possible right wing military dictatorship 3- A prolonged civil war.

None of these possible outcomes would guarantee a non-violent solution and the continuation of the Honduran democratic process.

Obviously the first scenario would be the most favorable solution for all Honduran, but there is no guarantee that an oligarchy so stupid as to nominate as the Honduran foreign minister an individual whose first act was to call Obama "Un negrito que no sabe donde queda Tegucigalpa"[a blacky who doesn’t even know the location of Tegucigalp] cannot be trusted to make intelligent decisions in its own best interests.

So instead of taking the intelligent way out that the Obama administration is offering it, it is almost a mathematical certainty that it will choose the worst possible option regarding its own long-range interests. Its probable decision would probably be to opt for the myopic solution and not accept, even under the most favorable circumstances for its own interests, that Zelaya’s return to power is a price for avoiding civil strife and ensuring its own non-violent continuation in power.

So we can be probably be 70 or 80% sure that the Honduran de facto government will probably buy the rope with which it will eventually hang the rightwing oligarchy that supports it by promoting the demagogical class warfare that will allow its left wing opponents to take over sometime in the future.

In a subsequent message, this same guy predicts that even if the US ratchets up sanctions, the interim government will hold out. Meanwhile, Zelaya, apparently not satisfied with what Hillary told him (further cutting aid-see below), is planning his own comeback, which could be bloody. Worst-case scenario would be if Zelaya were killed in the attempt, second-worse would be his arrest and trial.

Ousted President 'Organizing' for His Return to Honduras
By Mary Beth Sheridan, Washington Post, September 3, 2009

Two months after he was overthrown in a coup, Honduras's ousted president said Wednesday that he sees little progress in U.S.-backed negotiations aimed at restoring him to power and has started formulating plans to go back to the country and reclaim its highest office.


INTERNATIONAL / AMERICAS | September 03, 2009

Ousted Honduran Leader Seeks Tougher U.S. Stance Against Coup

By GINGER THOMPSON, New York Times, September 3, 2009

Manuel Zelaya asked the Obama administration to cut off monetary assistance to the de facto government and freeze the visas and assets of those involved in plotting his overthrow.

US cuts aid to Honduras in support of ex-leader
By MATTHEW LEE
Associated Press
Thursday, September 3, 2009 2:16 PM

WASHINGTON -- The Obama administration on Thursday cut all non-humanitarian aid to Honduras over the ouster of President Manuel Zelaya, making permanent a temporary suspension of U.S. aid imposed after he was deposed in June. The State Department made the announcement as Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton was meeting with Zelaya. Spokesman Ian Kelly did not say how much assistance would be cut but officials have said previously that more than $200 million is at stake. Kelly said it affected "a broad range of assistance to the government of Honduras."
"The Secretary of State has made the decision, consistent with U.S. legislation, recognizing the need for strong measures in light of the continued resistance to the adoption of the San Jose Accord by the de facto regime and continuing failure to restore democratic, constitutional rule to Honduras," Kelly said in a statement.
The San Jose accord, brokered by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias, aims to return Zelaya to power with limited authority until elections now set for November. But Zelaya's replacement, Roberto Micheletti, has refused to accept it, prompting Clinton's decision to cut aid.

In making the aid cut decision, however, Clinton did not determine that Zelaya's ouster met the U.S. legal definition of a military coup d'etat. Such a finding would have forced the administration to cut off assistance and had been urged by some leading lawmakers, including Rep. Howard Berman, D-Calif., chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. "This one looks, walks and quacks like a duck," Berman wrote in Thursday's editions of the Los Angeles Times. "It's time to stop hedging and call this bird what it is. And if, for whatever reason, the State Department lawyers do not conclude that this was a coup, Congress should examine other ways by which it can directly affect the flow of aid."

Zelaya was deposed and exiled on June 28 amid suspicions among his opponents that he wanted to overturn the constitutional provision limiting Honduran presidents to a single term. He has denied that was his goal.

Kelly said that while stopping short of the coup determination, Clinton's decision "recognizes the complicated nature of the actions" that led to Zelaya's ouster. He said those "involve complex factual and legal questions and the participation of both the legislative and judicial branches of government as well as the military." He said "restoration of the terminated assistance will be predicated upon a return to democratic, constitutional governance in Honduras." He added that the United States would not recognize the results of the election under current conditions and stressed it was imperative that the vote meet international standards. "That election must be undertaken in a free, fair and transparent manner," he said. "It must also be free of taint and open to all Hondurans to exercise their democratic franchise. At this moment, we would not be able to support the outcome of the scheduled elections."

"A positive conclusion of the Arias process would provide a sound basis for legitimate elections to proceed," Kelly said. "We strongly urge all parties to the San Jose talks to move expeditiously to agreement."

In addition to the aid cut, he said the State Department would revoke the U.S. visas of an unspecified number of Honduran officials who are backing Micheletti. The department had previously revoked the visas of four Honduran officials allied with Micheletti. It has also previously announced the suspension of nearly $20 million in military and development assistance to Honduras and stopped issuing most visas at the U.S. embassy in Honduras.