At this rate, my respondents should just take over this blog. They have more to say than I and say it more colorfully and cogently too. So, here they are below, with today’s media articles appearing below that. At least I still have a few faithful readers, though some, like Hondurans themselves, are getting tired of it all. The 2 AP articles are pretty repetitious. Chang's is a new name in the press. As mentioned before, I have met Adolfo Facusse, quoted below, and his wife in connection with their support for medical brigades held in the capital.
A close follower of the Honduras situation comments: MSM without exception, indeed to the point of tiresome repetitiousness, describes Zelaya as being "holed up" in the Brazilian embassy, whereas one of the leftist websites you quoted uses the term "has taken refuge." The Times and the Post have noted that Obama is characteristically not taking sides and have offered both pro- and anti-Zelaya interpretations of this. For sure they haven't accused the president of playing into the hands of a wannabe fascist dictatorship.
The thing is, you can't be sure how closely the army is working with Micheletti and how much of a hold General Vasquez has on the troops. It's undeniable that civil liberties have been taken away, but whether because the present regime is "repressive," "fascist," &c or because the people in charge believe that the measures they've instituted are the lesser of two evils is not as clear to me as it is to the writers on the websites you quoted. Are the people (person?) now in charge starting to make the omelet of a dictatorship by breaking eggs, or is the idea to hurt a relative few for the sake of protecting a more prudent/cautious majority? Left or right, it's always the extremists who man the barricades. What it seems like, from what you've learned, is that most of the people simply want all this to stop and normal life, hard as it's always been, to resume. Therefore, the responsible thing to do is keep the matches out of the children's hands until order can be restored. That would be fine if there was certainty (a) that order would in fact be restored soon and (b) that "order" wouldn't represent a giant step in the wrong direction. Aren't we now past the date Arias had given? That poor man must be wondering what to do next.
Here’s another comment: Presumably, the Latin guy, sees a game of chicken: Zelaya believes that he can force an end game in which the army are swayed by huge public demonstrations to lay down their arms, let the people perform for the TV cameras in an unambiguously pro-Zelaya fashion, and . . . then what? Micheletti says, “Aw gee, I guess they do want you, Mel. Here then, you take over.” More likely, Zelaya expects that Obama, who has tried to stay out of it, will jawbone Micheletti and do what Chavez hasn’t been able to accomplish, namely, make the de facto government go away.
Doesn’t it kind of look as though everyone is still winging it? Newspaper articles suggest that Zelaya couldn’t have made it into the Brazilian embassy without the help, or at least the assurance of no interference, of the Honduran army. This makes intuitive sense, but it’s hard for someone who’s never been there to have a real feel for the dynamics of the situation. Instead of each side waiting for the other to blink, each side seems to be waiting for the other to move another pawn, with neither willing or able to think far enough ahead to arrive at checkmate.
I don’t think either of these guys is really a leader. Micheletti, of course, has said he doesn’t want to be, and he can only damage himself more by adding to the impression that perhaps in fact he does. Whether his recent actions will later be interpreted as repression a la Stalin or a la Lincoln won’t be known for a while. But what Zelaya risks is looking at best silly and without a plan, at worst, cowardly. He’s well protected, but he’s asking his people to put their immediate futures, perhaps their lives, on the line. What if he calls a “spontaneous” demonstration and nobody comes?
Suppose an agreement is reached to let Zelaya address the nation publicly, for as long as he wants, to answer the charges that led to his exile. Would he be capable of anything like Castro’s “History Will Absolve Me” speech to Batista’s court after the Moncada Barracks fiasco? Nothing he’s done since I became aware of his existence leads me to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Here’s someone else: The high command would also like to keep their positions and to avoid being deposed by an army mutiny or a popular insurrection. They also know that if the Arias proposal is accepted after September 29 they are not in danger of being cashiered by Zelaya since the army passes under the commando of the Electoral Tribunal. So know they have a higher probability of keeping their positions under the acceptance of the Arias plan than by continuing the repression against Zelaya's backers.The high command is also probably being pressured by their US advisors not to continue to provide support for the de facto government.
The presidential candidates and the political parties probably believe that the approval of the Arias proposals and the return of Zelaya to the presidency would not pose any danger for them as long as the army is kept out of his control and that the only way the elections can be held is if all public protests cease with his return to the Presidency.
So all the stakeholders are gradually accepting the idea that Zelaya should return to the presidency because this would not pose an immediate danger for them as long as the army is kept out of his control and it is the only way to return to normalcy and to hold the forthcoming presidential elections.
What could wreck or block an agreement now would be Zelaya's insistence on enrolling his own political party and advancing a candidate for the coming elections or any sign on his part that if returned to the presidency he could engage in some sort of hanky panky!
The political situation in Honduras is very variable and changes very rapidly but I continue to believe that the key to the situation lies magnitude of the public protests and in the evolution of the swing portion of the Honduran armed forces.
The heightened public protests and the increase in the repression of the population have led to a growing discontent in the lower and middle ranks of the armed forces that could lead to a declaration of neutrality and the cessation of repression or even an a revolt against the high command and the de facto government.
If this occurs it means the end of the de facto government and the seizure of power by Zelaya for the foreseeable future without being bound by the provisions of the Arias Mediation Proposals. Therefore the pressure is on the supporters of the de facto government and the Honduran Oligarchy to head off this possibility and to accept the Arias proposals to ensure their political survival.
However, future developments depend on the Zelaya supporters maintaining the level of the political protests leading to a pro Zelaya shift within the army lower and middle levels. If the public pressure dies down and the Micheletti regime thinks the situation is under control or that Zelaya would not keep the terms of the Arias agreement they will continue to block Zelaya's return to power.
Honduran soldiers raid building
By MARK STEVENSON
Associated Press
Wednesday, September 30, 2009 10:53 AM
TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras -- Soldiers and police enforced an emergency decree suspending civil liberties Wednesday despite promises by the coup-imposed government to lift the measures criticized by its own allies as going too far. About 150 police and soldiers acting on the decree raided the offices of the National Agrarian Institute, occupied by supporters of ousted President Manuel Zelaya since the June 28 coup. Authorities detained 54 farm activists and Zelaya supporters, police spokesman Orlin Cerrato said. "The decree is being discussed by a lot of sectors, and appeals have been filed," he said. "But it remains in force."
Cerrato said the action was aimed at recovering control of the building, which contains valuable land title records. One of the detained activists, farmer Jose Irene Murillo, 69, said he feared "they are going to destroy the records of the small farmers, because the big landowners want the land."
Lawmakers have made clear Congress will revoke the emergency security crackdown if
the interim government does not, said Rigoberto Chang, a congressman with the conservative National Party. Congress has the power to lift or modify the decree issued Sunday that bans unauthorized gatherings and lets police arrest people without warrants, rights guaranteed in the Honduran Constitution. It also allows authorities to shut news media for "statements that attack peace and the public order, or which offend the human dignity of public officials, or attack the law."
Interim President Roberto Micheletti backtracked on the decree Monday, saying he had agreed to reconsider the move at the request of congressional leaders. Wednesday's raid contrasted sharply with recent overtures to end the crisis from those who supported the coup. The country's political and business elite have been urging Micheletti this week to meet face-to-face with Zelaya after growing weary of the turmoil that has paralyzed Honduras.
The leftist leader also has indicated he is ready to break the stalemate. Zelaya said Tuesday night that he was encouraged by a plan proposed by an influential business chamber for putting him back in office and ending the crisis. The plan includes bringing foreign troops to Honduras to ensure that if Zelaya was restored to the presidency, he would respect an international mediator's proposal that his powers be strictly limited.
Zelaya said it was "good sign" that "conservative sectors of the country are analyzing a proposal" that includes his reinstatement. "We will make the respective analysis," Zelaya said in an interview with Channel 11. "We hope to enter into talks with those who are making this proposal in the next hours."
The disagreement over the security decree was the biggest public rift between Micheletti and the Congress that put him in power after soldiers forced Zelaya into exile June 28 in a dispute over changing the constitution.
The interim government has been increasingly on the defensive since Zelaya sneaked back into the country on Sept. 21 and took refuge at the Brazilian Embassy. Micheletti initially insisted on the decree to counter what he said were calls for "insurrection" by the ousted leader's supporters.
But conservative politicians expressed fear it would endanger the Nov. 29 presidential election, which they consider Honduras' best hope for regaining international recognition. The ballot was scheduled before the removal of Zelaya, whose presidential term expires in January.
Chang said leading conservative lawmakers "weren't even consulted" about the security crackdown. "It took us by surprise," he said. "We were scared because they weren't taking us into account at all." Chang criticized the closure of two pro-Zelaya broadcasters Monday under the decree, saying such moves could encourage protesters who have been largely peaceful to turn to violence to get their views across.
Despite the dispute, there has been no groundswell of support among lawmakers for allowing Zelaya to return to power, as governments worldwide have been demanding.
Adolfo Facusse, the president of the National Industry Chamber, proposed over the weekend that 3,000 troops from conservative-led nations be sent to Honduras if Zelaya is restored to office. He said Tuesday that the force could be U.N. peacekeepers. "Zelaya would have a number of limits on his authority," said Facusse, whose association vocally supported Zelaya's ouster. Facusse says he discussed parts of the plan with Micheletti, including a proposal to make the interim president a congressman-for-life.
Chang said lawmakers were open to considering any proposals for resolving the political standoff "no matter how unlikely they might appear," but he said there was no need to have foreign troops in Honduras. Micheletti so far has been staunchly opposed to putting Zelaya back in office.
Cracks deepen among supporters of Honduran coup
By MARK STEVENSON
Associated Press
Wednesday, September 30, 2009 2:00 AM
TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras -- Cracks are deepening among supporters of Honduras' coup-imposed government, with business leaders softening their opposition to reinstating the ousted president and lawmakers threatening to revoke an emergency decree limiting civil liberties.
Lawmakers have made clear Congress will revoke the order if the government does not, Rigoberto Chang, a congressman with the conservative National Party, said Tuesday. Congress has the power to lift or modify the decree.
Interim President Roberto Micheletti backtracked on the emergency order Monday, saying he had agreed to reconsider the move at the request of congressional leaders. But the order appeared to remain in effect Tuesday.
olice prevented hundreds of demonstrators from marching in support of ousted President Manuel Zelaya for a second straight day. Two broadcasters that had criticized the coup remained shuttered, although one of them, Radio Globo, was transmitting on the Internet a day after police raided its offices and confiscated equipment.
The disagreement over the security decree was the biggest public rift between Micheletti and the Congress that put him in power after soldiers forced Zelaya into exile June 28 in a dispute over changing the constitution.
The interim government has been increasingly on the defensive since Zelaya sneaked back into the country on Sept. 21 and took refuge at the Brazilian Embassy. Micheletti initially insisted the government needed to restrict freedom of speech and assembly to counter what he said were calls for "insurrection" by the ousted leader's supporters. But conservative politicians expressed fear the emergency decree imposed Sunday would endanger the Nov. 29 presidential election, which they consider Honduras' best hope for regaining international recognition. The ballot was scheduled before the removal of Zelaya, whose presidential term expires in January.
Chang said leading conservative lawmakers "weren't even consulted" about the security crackdown. "It took us by surprise," he said. "We were scared because they weren't taking us into account at all."
Chang criticized the closure of the two pro-Zelaya broadcasters, saying such moves could encourage protesters who have been largely peaceful to turn to violence to get their views across. "It's less damaging to talk on the television or radio than being on the streets throwing stones," the congressman said. "A decree of that nature could endanger the elections."
Despite the dispute, there has been no groundswell of support among lawmakers for allowing Zelaya to return to power, as governments worldwide have been demanding.
Influential business leaders, however, have indicated they are open to the idea of reinstating Zelaya. They proposed over the weekend that 3,000 U.N. peacekeepers be sent to Honduras to ensure that if Zelaya was restored to the presidency, he would respect an international mediator's proposal that his powers be strictly limited.
"Zelaya would have a number of limits on his authority," Adolfo Facusse, president of the National Industry Chamber, which had vocally supported Zelaya's ouster, said Tuesday.
Facusse said previously that he discussed parts of the plan with Micheletti, including a proposal to make the interim president a congressman-for-life. He said the peacekeepers could come from conservative-led nations like Colombia, Panama or Canada.
Chang said lawmakers were open to considering any proposals for resolving the political standoff "no matter how unlikely they might appear," but he said there was no need to send foreign troops to Honduras.
Micheletti remains staunchly opposed to putting Zelaya back in office.
Costa Rican President Oscar Arias, the mediator in U.S.-backed talks who put forward the proposal for returning Zelaya to office with limited powers, commended Micheletti for saying he would reverse the security decree. But Arias criticized him for refusing to budge on reinstating Zelaya. Micheletti "has not moved an inch" in negotiations to return Zelaya to power, Arias said at a business forum in Miami.
Earlier Tuesday, Gen. Romeo Vasquez, the military chief who oversaw Zelaya's ouster, implored Hondurans on both sides to join in resolving the crisis. "All sectors of society should put aside their differences to unite the homeland," Vasquez said.
Honduras says OAS delegation can visit
CNN Online
29 September 2009
A controversial emergency decree limiting some freedoms in Honduras remained in place Tuesday, despite de facto President Roberto Micheletti's stated intention to repeal it. The controversy over the decree, which limits constitutional rights such as freedoms of expression, travel and public congregation, became the latest obstacle toward a resolution between Micheletti and deposed President Jose Manuel Zelaya. The decree was a response to the unexpected return of Zelaya to Honduras. He has been holed up inside the Brazilian embassy in the Honduran capital for more than one week.
Micheletti has been meeting with Honduran supreme court justices and congressmen about steps to repeal the decree, Costa Rican President Oscar Arias told CNN en Español.
Arias, a mediator between the two sides, said he spoke with Micheletti on the phone about the issue. "If the decree is repealed, it would be a very good thing," Arias said. The measure had not been repealed as of Tuesday night, but Micheletti has said that he would listen to the wishes of the other branches of power.
On Tuesday, Amnesty International became the latest human rights organization to condemn the measure. "Honduras risks spiraling into a state of lawlessness, where police and military act with no regard for human rights or the rule of law," said Susan Lee, Americas Director at Amnesty International, in a statement. "Roberto Micheletti must urgently rescind the decree and send clear instructions to the security forces to respect human rights in all circumstances and at all times."
In another development, the head of the armed forces, Romeo Vasquez, said that a solution to the crisis would come soon, CNN en Español reported. But the general gave no details of how that solution would come.
Meanwhile, Honduras said a delegation from the Organization of American States can visit Friday, five days after a group of OAS representatives looking to help the country end its political turmoil was turned away. The OAS officials were not allowed in although they had been invited, the Honduran government said in a statement late Monday, because they arrived too soon. The de facto government was carrying on "conversations between the political actors, local business and religious leaders" and was not ready for the visitors, the statement said. The OAS held an emergency meeting Monday and issued it's own statement saying the organization "deplored" Honduras' refusal to allow the diplomats into the country.
Monday night's statement by Honduras also defended the emergency decree.
The 45-day decree announced Sunday night forbids any unauthorized public gatherings, allows officials to make arrests without a judicial order and lets the government close down news media that threaten "peace and order." "This decision was made because (Zelaya) was calling for insurrection ... but I'm going to listen to the other powers of the state and we're going to make the most wise decision in the interests of Honduras," Micheletti said, according to the newspaper La Prensa.
Zelaya, who was ousted in a June 28 military-led coup, has called for talks with Micheletti, who has vowed that the former president will never regain his post. Micheletti also has said Zelaya would be arrested if he leaves the Brazilian embassy here in the nation's capital. The crack-down under the emergency order was swift Monday as Honduran police and military seized the Canal 36 TV station and Radio Globo stations
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