Actress Debbie Reynolds, who died suddenly of a
stroke a day after her daughter Carrie
Fisher had reportedly died of heart failure, probably succumbed to a broken
heart. At least, that was my immediate assessment as a mother who has lost a
child—also a grownup child; but it’s still your child. In research about that for
my two memoirs, I discovered that in the acute phase of grief, physical changes
in the heart can occur—so-called “broken-heart syndrome” or stress-induced cardiomyopathy. A stroke is not the same as a
heart attack, but both are spasms of the circulatory system that keeps us alive
from one second to another, even more essential than breathing. Such a sudden
death after a losing a loved one also often occurs when a long-time spouse dies,
especially if the first death is sudden and unexpected. (After I came to my “broken-heart” conclusion
about those back-to-back celebrity deaths, the pundits began weighing in to
agree.)
In
a 2016 study published in the Annals of Epidemiology, researchers found that parents had
an increased risk of dying up to three
years after their child's death, compared with parents who had not lost
children. Deaths among bereaved parents because of coronary artery problems were
especially high.
President
Obama took steps against Russian
election hacking, but only after the fact, too late to reverse our woeful
election outcome. https://www.yahoo.com/tech/stop-doing-read-newly-declassified-report-russia-election-222404568.html
There
has been a clamor for Obama to pardon Edward
Snowden, which I sincerely hope won’t happen. Putin is a master manipulator
who seems to have won over Donald Trump,
a political novice. He may have seen Trump’s inexperience and incompetence as
his chance to help recover Russian glory and seek vengeance for western “meddling”
in his sphere, Eastern Europe and
Ukraine. Trump’s presidency looks not only woeful on domestic policy but also on
foreign policy. The Republican Party, now holding all the cards, will either
rise to the occasion or fall via its own collective incompetence.
However,
I do agree with Trump that not retaliating immediately, as the US had expected,
was a smart move by Putin,
especially with a more friendly and possibly easily manipulated president—who
may owe his victory to Putin—now coming into office. We must view the Trump
presidency as an unfortunate freak national accident, a calamity that we must
fight to overcome and to recover from.
The Peace Corps was turned down in its
application to march in Trump’s inaugural parade—his loss. This parade is going
to be one of the shortest on record, with no DC-area bands asking to
participate for the first time in recent memory.
Apart
from choosing simply inappropriate or adverse cabinet and agency heads and
advisers, Trump seems to want to reward loyalists such a Mitch McConnell’s
wife, Kellyanne Conway’s husband, and his own son-in-law with government positions,
never mind conflicts of interest and he seems unconcerned about his own
business interest conflicts, nor do the Republican Party and Republican voters
seem to care either. He charged a stiff price for attendance at a New Year’s
Eve party at his Florida estate. He wanted to rake in the money while he still
could. Trump’s incessant tweeting habit, appropriate for someone with a short
attention span, is not the best way to run a presidency either, but he says he
plans to keep it up. Tweeting is his bully pulpit, used to tweak defense
contractors and corporation heads alike, who, so far, have seemed to respond.
I’m sure tweeting makes Trump feel powerful, like a kid with a toy gun going
“bang-bang.” After a while, tweeting may lose its luster in terms of its
effects.
Before
the election, the New Yorker ran a cover showing 2 alternative scenarios: Hillary
Clinton taking the oath of office with Bill standing by, then Donald Trump,
with a smirking Vladimir Putin as witness. The latter is what really happened.
Then the very week of the election, just before the actual voting day, a clever
cover showed a man on the subway reading an open newspaper whose headline said,
“Oh God, Please No.” Whichever result later happened, that image and that
headline would fit the bill—either confirmation of previous anxiety or great
relief.
The
Republicans and Trump say they plan to keep their promise to repeal Obamacare on “Day One,” but, it turns
out, their plan is to announce its
repeal and replacement, but probably to delay the actual change while they work
things out. Kellyanne Conway, perhaps channeling Trump, has said that no one
who is satisfied with their current health insurance will lose it. If so,
that’s reassuring. Replacement could take years. Meanwhile, Obamacare is still
in place. Republicans may thus fulfill their campaign promise without really
doing so, at least not yet. They are finding replacement is not so easy and
outright repeal is impossible. The horse has already left the barn. The ACA has
already moved health care from primarily fee-for-service (the more service, the
better for a practitioner’s payments) to outcomes’ based care. A report in the NYTimes on health care focus groups indicates
that most people’s complaints against Obamacare are that their costs are too
high—they want the same coverage or better at a lower cost. Can Trump and the
Republicans deliver on that?
I keep
hoping (imaginary wish fulfillment?) that Trump may not be quite as crazy as he
seems and is playing with us by seeming totally uninformed and outrageous,
getting publicity, and arousing his base. Then when he does something
relatively normal, like advise Republican Congressmen to back off their plan to
gut ethics oversight, we are pleasantly surprised. Also, we human beings tend
to adjust to adverse circumstances. After accidents, job losses, romantic
breakups, or even deaths of loved ones, while we still acknowledge and feel the
effects, they do soften over time. So that may happen with President Trump, as
we come to regard him as the “new
normal.”
As President Obama leaves office and takes
up residence for a time in our fair city of Washington, DC, we wonder what tasks
he and his wife will undertake. We have not heard much about their future
plans, only that Michelle has no desire to run for office (she did her best for
8 years, but seems to definitely be glad that it’s over.) I don’t see them
retiring, as GW and Laura Bush have done. Barack Obama did quite well as
president overall, given the almost visceral opposition of the Republican Party
to anything he proposed. Where I fault him most is in regard to Syria, where his reluctance to commit
more airpower or troops by a war-weary USA was understandable. But it does seem
that the bloodshed there and Russia’s support of Assad, a proven butcher of his
own people, could and should have been prevented. I would count Syria as the
greatest foreign affairs failure of the Obama administration.
Democrats’
greatest domestic failure was not enough focus on local and state races where
Republicans have cleaned up and have re-set district boundaries. So Democrats will
need to focus locally and, in Congress, to grill Trump’s picks for office with
sufficient rigor that the press picks it up to inform voters. The electorate
needs to keep informed and the media is crucial for that. Donald Trump can rail
all he wants against the “crooked media,” but it’s more essential than ever to
arouse and educate an uninformed electorate. We are now seeing how easily
voters can be influenced by fake news and false statements—lies really—by Donald
Trump, all the more reason to support genuine news sources. Of course, my pet
peeve as a citizen of Washington, DC, is that we don’t have any congressional
voting representation. Nor are Republicans likely to let us have it—ditto for
Puerto Rico’s bid to become a state, another potential Democratic stronghold.
As for Hillary Clinton, while she put up a
good fight against enormous and rather freakish odds and while the majority who
voted for her, many women and girls—and men, too—are angry and disappointed
that she won’t take office, her presidential ambitions do seem to be finished.
She will have to find a new role; it’s hard to imagine just what, but she
should not retire completely. Polls show her to be the woman most admired by
Americans, so she needs to find a political platform before her influence fades.
After aspiring to the presidency, she would not want to go back to a lower
elective office, but that might still be her best bet if she wants to remain in
public service. Or perhaps she can team up with Michelle Obama in an outreach to
girls. I think that she and Bill are wise to plan to attend Trump’s
inauguration, hard as that may be. She should not be a sore loser, even though
her loss seems unfair.
Or
Hillary may decide to simply retire from politics to become a grandmother,
write a best-selling memoir that reveals Trump’s true colors, and give speeches
here and abroad on behalf of the Clinton Foundation and other causes. Even
outside politics, she would have plenty to occupy her time and energy. She also
lives in a very picturesque little town and is beloved by her neighbors, who often
ran into her and Bill out walking their dog during the sad days after the
election. A neighboring house was bought for her daughter’s family. Maybe Chelsea will one day run for office?
Now, even after North
Carolina’s disastrous experience with a “bathroom bill,” some in Texas want to
try it there. Apparently, unknown to me, transgender people have existed—with
or without surgery or hormones—and have been using public bathrooms all these
years. Do we women really fearfully scrutinize anyone who looks taller than
usual or otherwise not typically feminine using a public restroom? I haven’t
heard of cases of a man in drag using a women’s restroom in order to sexually
assault women, though when and if such cases occur, the guy should be arrested.
Are people supposed to show their birth certificates when entering a restroom?
This whole issue is a tempest in a teapot.
Little has been said about
Dylann Roof’s family, who don’t seem
to be rushing publicly to his defense. However, there is a brief mention of his
troubled family past in Wikipedia and he is said to have written his mother a
letter of apology.
Here’s a
provocative and seemingly accurate article about inequality in Honduras: http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/20856/why-honduras-remains-latin-america-s-most-unequal-country
Say it isn’t so: “In Zimbabwe, a
First Lady Exerts Her Power “(NY
Times, Jan. 7, 2017) Grace Mugabe, the wife of President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, is one of the main actors
maneuvering to succeed him. [After Zimbabweans having waited patiently for
Mugabe to die, the prospect of his wife taking over later is unnerving, especially
as she looks rather young in photos.]
Regarding
the US abstention in the Security Council and John Kerry’s frank diatribe
against Israeli settlements, it seems
obvious that settlements do endanger the “two-state solution” since they
encroach on land destined for a Palestinian homeland. We’re talking here about
a fight over dividing up a very small piece of territory—Israel-Palestine—a
fight that has gone nowhere now for decades due to failings on both sides. Appeals
to the Bible and supposed divine
promises made thousands of years ago to Jews do not hold much sway with today’s
Muslims, whether Palestinians or citizens of Muslim majority nations surrounding
present-day Israel. Also, for the US to have continued to support Israel, right
or wrong, on the settlements issue would have increased the image of the US as
an international bully. Breaking that reputation was one of the same reasons
that Obama made the outreach to Cuba. The US had also signed a very generous
10-year aid package to Israel beforehand. Of course, Trump seems to have a
different view of Israeli settlements—we shall see—and Israel’s claims and
actions are certainly supported by American evangelicals, so the UN abstention
and Kerry’s speech may have created a backlash, at least temporarily, among
lawmakers of both parties. Certainly Netanyahu seems to feel, as does Putin,
that he has an ally in Trump. It will be interesting to see how much Trump
changes the Republican Party and vice versa.
South Sudan and the senseless ethnic war taking
place there seriously concern me because of my mission in 2006, before
independence 5 years later. All the efforts to establish a new nation have been
wiped away. Apparently President Salva
Kiir, the man in the black hat, has the upper hand, so will he and his
forces stop now?
http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/02/the-revenge-of-salva-kiir-south-sudan-genocide-ethnic-cleansing/
Venezuela has now instituted a food rationing
system similar to the one Cuba has had ever since 1962, providing limited items
monthly via a ration book called a libreta
de abastecimiento [provisions booklet], while Venezuela calls its version carnet de la patria [homeland carnet].
Haiti certifies presidential victory
of first-time candidate
PORT-AU-PRINCE,
Haiti – An electoral tribunal in Haiti has certified the presidential election
victory of first-time candidate Jovenel Moise. [Apparently, there were many
candidates and a small percentage of the electorate actually voted, so it’s
unclear how much support he actually has.]
https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/c5050492-248c-3314-844f-73cf0db7258b/haiti-certifies-presidential.html
Regarding
Cuba, my special interest as expressed
in my Confessions book and my Amnesty
International volunteer efforts over the years, Trump may have won Florida in
part because of his promise to roll back Obama’s diplomatic accords. However, my
advice to Trump now (if he would take it) would be to keep the diplomatic
opening and to continue to encourage non-political educational, sports,
artistic, and cultural exchanges. But, do not further relax the embargo unless
there are concessions on the Cuban side, of which, so far, there have been few
to none. Instead, allow US business investment in Cuba, provided such
businesses are free to hire, fire, and pay their own workers directly. Of
course, such workers would be paid more than the miserable salaries paid by the
Cuban government, which could only get its cut through personal taxation, which
in all fairness should not exceed the current maximum of 50%. Otherwise, the
government would have the same problem it has now of workers not willing to put
in much effort, because the leadership takes most of the fruits of their labor.
Already, licensed home businesses are taxed up to 50%, but even at that high rate,
working for real wages would boost both workers’ rights and wellbeing and still
enrich the leadership at 50%, though not perhaps at the 90+% it now enjoys.
There is a precedent in that Cuba permitted Indian workers to build a French
hotel and to be paid more monthly than a Cuban worker would earn in a whole
year. Call the new system “enhanced socialism” or whatever the leadership likes.
Already it calls home businesses “work outside the government sector,” not
private enterprise.
Cuba
should also permit and encourage more production by individual farmers or truly locally organized autonomous cooperatives,
with most of the benefit—and, yes, the profits—going to farmers themselves. It
is totally unnecessary for a land-rich country like Cuba to have to import most
of its food. Get the Peace Corps in there to help Cuban farmers recover their
agricultural skills, as I first proposed in the Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/barbara-e-joe/peace-corps-in-cuba-you-h_b_6581182.html
This
implies that the Cuban leadership would have to allow a relaxation, but it must
do something to permit and incentivize workers to produce something of value
besides rum and cigars. The leadership (dictatorship) will not remain in power
unless it loosens up a bit, even if that seems risky from its own viewpoint. Venezuelan
oil donations have been reduced and the Cuban economy, already on life support,
is contracting even further. Now that Fidel
is gone and Raul is retiring in
2018, the Cuban Communist Party
needs to face reality and slightly relax its controls if it wants to survive.
Still call the new system “socialism,” just as China and Vietnam do,
and maintain one-party political control as they do, but allow ordinary people
at least some economic freedom even though they may not be free to vote, speak,
write, assemble, or access information. Most people, even in the U.S., care
more about economic than civil or political rights. It’s admittedly a half-measure,
but better than nothing, which is what Cubans have now, neither political
freedom nor economic wellbeing. Some would say that proposing such a mixed
system is defeatist, others simply realistic.
Some
have argued that the reluctance of the Cuban regime to allow reforms is based
on fear due to the proximity and size of the US and the “Revolution’s” historic mistrust of and opposition to the “Empire.” The large US-based diaspora,
a crucial economic player through massive remittances, also influences US
policy and may, through example and visits, encourage political discontent and dissent
among its Cuban-based family members. That’s a risk the leadership will have to
take because it faces the risk of even more widespread discontent and dissent
if it continues on the current path.
Cuban
authorities conducted a big military parade in Havana with marchers shouting
threats against President Obama:
Here’s a Cuban exile’s view of Cuba’s recent big military show: The military parade instead of a message to
Trump was one for the internal opposition. It said "If you mess with us
well obliterate you!" Certainly the Cuban military, whatever its
capacities, would be no match for the US if we really wanted to take over Cuba.
The Bay of Pigs was botched and not a good example of American military
prowess—rather, it was a ragtag bunch of exiles improperly armed and without
air backup whose defeat was not a real test of Cuban military might. The Cuban
military, given the size of the country and its resources, is really quite capable.
It did well in African wars. But it could not withstand a serious attack by the
US today, especially if drones and air power were involved.
The
military marchers shouted rather scary threats against President Obama,
referring to mortars and bullets being sent to him. The soldiers could
not have recited that chant without the express permission or orders from the
top brass. That Obama’s name was mentioned but not that of Putin’s pal Trump
may indicate the Cuban regime is seeking Russian aid once again.
¡OBAMA!
, ¡OBAMA! CON CUANTO FERVOR QUISIERA ENFRENTARME A TU TORPEZA PARA HACERTE UNA
LIMPIEZA CON REBELDES Y MORTEROS Y VOY A MANDARTE UN SOMBRERO DE PLOMO POR LA
CABEZA!”
There is a danger to the regime after Fidel's death and Raul's
retirement, although Raul will keep hands-on behind the scenes. Still, he is
not immortal either and the Cuban economy is shrinking even as American
visitors and exile remittances flood the island. Those seem to be the mainstays
of the economy now. If Trump imposes conditions on their continuance, the
regime may have to yield, while protesting all the way.
One good sign for the Cuban economy, the first Cuban exports to
the US, a special type of charcoal from a local hardwood tree called “marabu.”
A Cuban exile friend wishes that the polemics around whether Fidel
was a good or bad guy would fade—he hopes that the very memory of Fidel will
fade—so that Cuba can then get down to business. But I feel that it will take
some time for the polemics around Castro to die down. The Cuban government
would like his (good) reputation to keep them afloat, while some exiles would
like his (bad) reputation to be used against the current leadership. Time will
tell whether he becomes a bad guy, like Stalin, or an apparently officially
revered guy, like Mao.
The Peace Corps Association is planning a trip to Cuba again this
year. It’s good to keep the idea of Peace Corps going in Cuba. Remember that I
hope to live to see the day when volunteers are welcome in Cuba, as in China
and Vietnam, so Cuba, get used to it! If I’m still around and not too old when
that happens, I’d like to be among those pioneering volunteers. (The oldest PC volunteer
I know of was 86.)
Here is
a frank and seemingly realistic article by a recent American visitor to Cuba: http://www.businessinsider.com/cuba-fidel-castro-death-changes-2016-12
A friend
has sent me a card saying "You
Can Do It!" to help me move forward on the daunting task of planning
and actually carrying out my Honduras trip. I know I will go, but often at this
stage, I start thinking that I really don't have to go and maybe it's time to stop. Once I am actually there,
it looks do-able again. I will keep that card to inspire me if and when I go
back in 2018.
I’ve
been invited to appear on a Spanish-language
Miami TV station to talk about Cuba on my return from my annual February
trip to Honduras and, if I decide to do it, I will say pretty much what I’ve
said here, though some Cuban-born viewers may disagree, those who prefer to completely
roll back the US-Cuba accords.
Finally,
Trump’s assumption of the presidency is a sober reminder that we never know
what will happen next and, while we try to maintain hope and keep up our
spirits, that we can fail as well as succeed. Truth, honesty, justice, and
other positive virtues do not always win out and sometimes matters actually get
worse instead of better, so we may have to brace ourselves for that, even as
we try to reverse the current political course.
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